As a non-American I never fail to be surprised at how stark the black/non-black divide is in things like occupational choice and housing.
One complicating factor is the children of foreign-born back mothers which is very much on the rise. There are probably two million of these kids now and a sharp change from fifty years ago where something like 99% of black Americans were US-born to US-born parents.
How do these children of black immigrant mothers see themselves? Do they live in traditionally black neighbourhoods? Will they take up stereotypically black occupations? Will they take up a disproportionate share of black freshmen in elite colleges?
I’m curious as to whether this demographic will unbalance the black/non-black axis around which a lot of US social outcomes revolve.
Pew Research says that 53% of migrants to Europe between 2010 and 2016 were Muslim. It's probably gotten even more Muslim in the nine years since then.
It is sad to analyze I suppose, but black women are not considered attractive by a large majority of the non-black population and not even within their own race. Except in the case of a certain Supreme Court Justice, few non-black men are attracted to them. Because most black women have to support themselves, they abort their unborn children more often. The Clinton-Gingrich 1996 Welfare bill ended the Lyndon Johnson Great Society and encouraged more abortions by black women. Incidentally, Mr. Gingrich later converted to Catholicism after being rid of his second wife. He now thinks of himself as a leader in the Catholic Church. Needless to say, I find him a disgusting creature.
The OKCupid race results showed that black women and Asian men were the least desirable partners on the dating website. There was a huge backlash when the website revealed the hidden preferences on internet dating. Guess who was the most desirable? Asian women and white men.
Submissive and docile. Though East Asian women are attractive objectively, especially Japanese and Thai women IMO. They are slim, have thick hair, good skin, etc. Their behavior is also feminine. Asian women also seem to love autistic white men. Richard Hanannia's wife is Asian. I would have guessed that.
I think Asian is too broad. It includes SE Asian women and southern East Asian women, like Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc. that are different from the Koreans, Japanese and Koreans.
I also think the low-rating of black women is due to American black women v. African women.
And Richard Hananiah is, of all things, Palestinian Christian-descent. I've seen Syrian Christians who could pass at the Des Moines Rotary Club. I think the Middle Eastern Christians have a lot of European DNA by way of the Greek and Roman empires.
Don't forget the Crusades! And the Ottoman royalty preferred to breed with Slavic and Circassian Caucasian women.
But the genetic similarity of Europeans and ancient Levantines may mostly come from the opposite direction: the big EEF component of European populations is also the main genetic component of ancient Levantine peoples.
Dow v. United States, 226 F. 145 (4th Cir., 1915), is a United States Court of Appeals, Fourth Circuit, case in which a Lebanese Maronite immigrant, George Dow, appealed two lower court decisions denying his application for naturalization as a United States citizen.[1]: 257 Following the lower court decisions in Ex Parte Dow (1914) and In re Dow (1914), Dow v. United States resulted in the Circuit Court's affirmation of the petitioner's right to naturalize based, in the words of Circuit Judge Charles Albert Woods, on "the generally received opinion . . . that the inhabitants of a portion of Asia, including Syria and Lebanon, [are] to be classed as white persons".[2]: 7
East Asian women have the problem of having few variables. Docile. Usually thin. Black hair. Black eyes. Thin bottoms. White women have more variables. Blonde, red, brown and black hair. Ample breasts usually. Pleasant bottoms usually. Not docile.
"black women and Asian men were the least desirable partners"
My theory is that this is the case bc black women are the most masculine of women (often larger, louder, more aggressive), and men prize femininity, whereas Asian men are the least masculine of men (often smaller, quieter, more self-effacing), and women prize masculinity.
And women are more attracted to black men (than men of any race are to black women) because black men are often very masculine (stronger musculature, jaw lines, usually more forward/aggressive).
White men, of course, usually have the most assets.
I agree though controlling for femininity and masculinity, I still think the results would be the same. Race is also a proxy for other things - assets, values, marital stability, etc.
Exactly. Plus, kids of Asian men would inherit at least 50% of parental good IQ genes and would be successful on merit. Rather, it looks as if there is a sexual selection for properties similar to "deer antler size" instead of good genes. If you look into erotic literature, it is full of this. Ronald A. Fisher of statistics fame suggested that this skewing could indeed happen in his "sexy son hypothesis"
About 15 years ago I was on a BART train in Oakland, sitting across from an early 20's Octoroon who was quite pretty and feminine, though tattooed, and also visibly 5 months pregnant. Onto the train came a young white guy, working class Oakie-Arkie type. He immediately chatted her up and asked, "do you party?" She smiled and said, "No, I have a boyfriend."
Massive conservative victory that's rarely mentioned today, perhaps because it was bipartisan.
As to Gingrich, I disapprove of the way he treated his wife, but can't find any outrage for pretending to be Christian. If voters won't vote for anyone who's secular well then they're gonna get a "Christian."
A possible confirmation of the 1996 Welfare Reform's effectiveness is that the ethnicity whose out-of-wedlock births were least restrained by the new legislation was Hispanics, whose ranks were most supplemented by recent immigrants, who would not perceive the legislation as a new incentive against out-of-wedlock birthing.
He served her divorce papers when she was hospitalized?
At least he wasn't as dumb as former Congressman Bob Barr, who paid for his soon-to-be divorced wife's abortion with a personal check. Which she got the stamped copy of back at the family home as be was marrying his next wife.
The famous OK Cupid statistics showed that black women are indeed preferred by black men, just not by anybody else.
It's true that black women use abortion more than other races, but I don't know if there is any consensus as to why.
According to the Guttmacher Institute, black women are about tied with Hispanic women in letting unintended pregnancies go to term (48 unintended pregnancies go to term per 1000 black women per year versus 50 for Hispanic women (versus 24 for white women) https://www.guttmacher.org/graphics/gpr1103/Stark-Contrasts.gif ). So if the higher black abortion rates are due to having to support themselves, the logic isn't carrying over to not getting unintendedly pregnant in the first place.
And as the the groups with higher abortion rates have even higher unintended pregnancy rates, it's possible that abortion's availability actually diminishes responsibility about getting pregnant, such that it ironically leads to more unintended pregnancies going to term: the opposite of what Margaret Sanger, Planned Parenthood, and the Guttmacher Institute said would happen.
"The idea is that at some point in the future, within a number of generations, the white American birthrate will become higher than the birthrate of other races. That doesn't mean it will be very high. It could still be quite low, even below replacement level, but still higher than other races.
The reason I think this could happen is that at the causative level, I think whites may be best-positioned to become adapted to the environmental effects that cause low birthrates.
Intuitively, you could say there are two ways people arrive at not having children. First, there are the people who are too smart, busy, and educated to form families. They marry late, they become buried in work. Chronologically this is the effect that came first, giving rise to the Idiocracy narrative.
But there's also a second, newer cohort - the people who are too dumb, lazy and distracted to form families. In the past, such people ended up having children mainly because they had little else to do with their time, and because the norms of birth control usage hadn't yet fully permeated their subcultures. In our world of endless cheap digital distractions, I believe that's increasingly no longer the case.
So what we have is a classic high-low effect impacting birthrates. Which race is best positioned to be the first to become adapted/resistant to such an effect? In true Rushtonian tradition, white people. The race that's smart but not too smart, motivated but not too motivated, vigorous but not too vigorous.
Furthermore, even without getting into these details, at a very high level it just seems logical that if the white birthrate was the first to crash, it will also be the first to rise. Trends are often cyclical."
I agree with your assessment. I have been reading people's theories in the comment section of Twitter for years about the fertility crisis and recently someone had a similar assessment of why the birthrate is low that I hadn't seen before. That is, as you put it, people are "too smart, busy, and educated to form families". Thinking about it myself, I know lots of friends and family that fall into this category.
On the other hand, you are also right, that the lower classes have their own reasons, which is that they don't want the burden of having kids to take away from their fun so they use birth control more so than before. There are also newer innovations in BC than just the pill, there are some implantable things in your arm that stop your cycle. I wonder of those have gone more "viral" with young women.
Personally my wife and I are both college educated, homeowners, with good middle management jobs. We're not exceptionally talented, neither of us are going to found a start up or become C-Suite executives. We stopped at 2, that's all we have the energy for. If I were an ultra high earner and she didn't have to work, and we could afford our basic needs + some luxuries, then we would have a 3rd.
Statistics is just anecdotes writ large. I think Steve once said "if one is not aware of anecdotes that align with such and such point shown by a statistic, it could be that the statistic should be interrogated a bit more". And sure, I heard of many instances of "Approved Posture"' experience.
No, because people who think in terms of anecdotes usually get statistics or just descriptive statistics very wrong. Think about Steve's obsession with blacks overestimating the number of blacks shot by the police in a year.
Black women are among the demographics of women getting degrees, pursuing careers. Many are encouraged to prioritize their own financial well being before pursuing marriage. Regardless of their income status. A lot of millennial and Gen American born black women were not allowed to date in Highschool and entered college without that experience of navigating partnerships that would result in marriages and children. Shows like Teen Mom and witnessing firsthand how children could alter a young woman’s trajectory, most young women are careful.
Between the crime statistics of domestic violence, and looking out at men their age, they’re willing to wait to have children instead of subjecting their progeny to a miserable existence due to controllable factors.
Black women are among the demographics of women getting degrees, pursuing careers. Many are encouraged to prioritize their own financial well being before pursuing marriage. Regardless of their income status. A lot of millennial and Gen American born black women were not allowed to date in Highschool and entered college without that experience of navigating partnerships that would result in marriages and children. Shows like Teen Mom and witnessing firsthand how children could alter a young woman’s trajectory, most young women are careful.
Between the crime statistics of domestic violence, and looking out at men their age, they’re willing to wait to have children instead of subjecting their progeny to a miserable existence due to controllable factors.
They are getting degrees in subjects correlated with low lifetime earnings due to them being affiliated with the college students who have the lowest IQs. They fail to go into any industry that allows them to build a functional first world community without subsidization from others. For instance, if you look at the number of black women with college degrees and then look at the number of black women with government jobs, you’ll see a huge overlap. Something like more than 70% of black women with a bachelor’s degree work for government. That means their way of making money is done through the tax payer’s dime. These are the high performing black women. Few of them go into fields that require tangible work such as construction, welding, wastewater treatment, civil engineering, robotics, etc. The average black woman without a bachelor’s works as a CNA (wiping old peoples’ butts) or a home health aide. Sprinkle in some customer service at a call center or a cashier (both if these are low paying obsolete jobs), and that’s the most effective the average black woman makes. You’ll have your “educated” black teachers who don’t understand phonics or morphology who likely majored in education (one of the lowest IQ majors).
So, these women may be getting degrees, but do they have hard technical skills that allow them to outperform others? Real skills. Not this bs about coming up with some idea guide for nonsense. Until 80%+ of such women have those particular skills and apply them in their day to day life, your attempt at positive lighting towards these women is mute. What percentage of such women can start up real businesses (not the nonsense body oils, lotions, hair nonsense they release on a yearly basis) such that they make enough in revenue to hire people in the U.S. on an appropriate salary and good health insurance?
Covid lockdowns may have encouraged family formation and hysteresis could account for persistence. Homicides and deaths of exuberance may have outweighed these for black women.
If you look at the charts, there is a noticeable bump in white women's fertility following (2021) the covid lockdowns.
While there isn't a similar bump in black women's fertility, there is a later (2022+) rise in foreign born black women's fertility. That may be lockdown-related, but I suspect it was simply that the Biden administration's open border policy waved in a big new tranche of foreign-born black women who wasted little time in dropping anchor babies.
First World expectations. Despite all the persecutions and other inequalities between native Black and Whites, Black Americans have enjoyed at least part of the benefits of First World status -- as ought be.
Applying anti racism to outsiders is denying the descendants of American slaves their hard won birthright. Fun fact: Black America has more nativist cred than Whit America. THAT should be the real lesson of the 1619 Project.
Another positive environmental development that is being--slightly--undone by immigration.
There are several pretty obvious lessons one can learn from US history. But however you assign causality for America's racial division/tragedy importing more blacks into the US, would count as just some cosmic level of knuckleheadedness--of failure to learn from your mistakes. Except, of course--again--we know the problem is here is not really stupidity but really the grotesque error of allowing the formation of an elite hostile to the nation itself.
I would assume it’s because in the last 5 years a lot of impulsive young men who don’t concern themselves with the consequences of their thrill seeking in sex and violence have been removed from the gene pool by the latter so there is less of the former.
1) The decreasing black birth trend started before the May 2020 kickoff of the Racial reckoning.
2) If I remember Steve's numbers correctly, maybe 10,000-20,000 "additional" black men (and maybe 5,000-10,000 black women) have been killed by the Racial Reckoning in the George Floyd Era. But eyeballing the black birth chart above, maybe 500,000 births that would formerly have occurred didn't happen in the same period. Granted that the additional black homicide victims probably disproportionately come from the serial baby-daddying (and serial baby-mammaing) class, but still, even the maximum case of 30,000 "missing" parents is not really sufficient to pin 500,000 "missing" births on in just ~four years.
3) Historically, violence and sex go hand-in-hand quite often, e.g., WWII and the Baby Boom (that started before the war was over), as if the one calls forth the other.
So I think your hypothesis could be part of it, but there is also something else going on that is at least as strong.
For sure there must be multiple factors at play. Obviously abortions being utilized more is one, and perhaps there is some cultural impetus that made black women work harder at avoiding pregnancy as well.
Women are the reproductive, genetic and population bottleneck. The relatively few self-deleting young men would not preclude women from procreating. American population rose between 1860 and 1870, as a hint.
There are women among the "additional" Racial Reckoning deaths too, but I think Boulevardier was suggesting that the self-thinning of the sexy-bad-boy ranks may have turned off edge cases of the potential-baby-mamma ranks from procreation.
IMHO there probably are a few such cases but too few to be explanatory.
Yeah, in theory one sexy-bad-boy can impregnate a near infinite number of women, but in practice it does actually take some time and effort and involve some drag coefficients (e.g. slighted baby mama narcing you out to the cops) such that fewer sexy-bad-boys = fewer pregnancies, if not at a 1:1 rate.
However, even when black violence is at its worst, it's only a relatively small percentage of sexy-bad-boys taking themselves out of circulation either by means of being deleted or incarcerated. There are still plenty around to get with the existing women.
In terms of the black/white question poised, I'd imagine blacks--black fertility--has simply been hit much harder by a whole lot of the stupidities inflicted upon us in the Saint-George/Biden/Mayorkas era.
However, another factor would seem relevant and that is that white women would have gotten smart phones--and been subject to their effects--earlier than black women. But by the late teens absolutely everyone was on board. (I was probably one of that last to surrender my flip phone when it was no longer supported a few years ago.)
Easy theory is the Planned Parenthood. But that was available when the black TFR rate peaked concomitant (and probably also because of) the peak of the crack era. My theory is that it's just the same lethargy about procreation, for all the various valid reasons why it has been happening, that has affected every group of young women in the world except in sub-Saharan black Africa, finally getting around to affecting black American women.
As you say, Planned Parenthood has been available for a much longer while. As I said*, Planned Parenthood may (ironically) be responsible for the surge in unintended pregnancies in the first place.
So yeah, it may just be that the various anti-natal forces are finally affecting black women, which is kind of what IHTG commented above.**
> That may be lockdown-related, but I suspect it was simply that the Biden administration's open border policy waved in a big new tranche of foreign-born black women who wasted little time in dropping anchor babies.<
Bingo. Great, spot on point Almost. I suspect Port-au-Prince, Ohio (formerly Springfield) could probably account for several hundreds, if not a thousand--1/3--of that upswing by itself.
The hatred "our" "elites" for the flyover white peasantry simply knows no bounds.
And I'm still waiting for Trump to do something--anything. Wade in there--take the "racist!" abuse--and actually *reverse* this for the everlasting benefit of future Americans. Now, while the invaders are still "immigrants" is when deportation can very easily be done. Each step after that is 10x harder.
Trump has been willing to take on the clucking class on tariffs/trade--and in the process clearly demonstrated from the negotiations that yeah, the "global trade regime" was skewed against the US, based on basically the US piling up debt and seeing its assets looted.
Now Trump needs to work on 0something that really, really, really matters. If you will not actually reverse invasion, then you are accepting an invasion step function--every time the Parasite Party is in power, they flood the joint with their future clients/voters. Not reversing that and deporting en masse is accepting the Great Replacement--the destruction of the West, the genocide of the white race.
Sad facts: there really are many fewer eligible-for-fatherhood-and-employment black men, and many black men are in prison. In 1996, in a well-intentioned bipartisan effort, Gingrich and Clinton enacted welfare-to-work requirements, with lots of childcare and other support, but only for mothers. Black fathers thus became even more alienated from family involvement and advancement, as 70-75% of women left welfare (but not other social services) and at least started modeling a productive, employed life for their children. Black girls especially responded to this carrot-and-stick behavior, as it was aimed at females. And finally, pro-choice groups (I intentionally use a group's own identification of itself and ask the same of them) were taken over by/intentionally handed to black women from the mid-90's onward. This particular iteration of political correctness on the part of true-believer board members resulted in abortion "advocacy" becoming far more widespread in the black community at the same time as church involvement was on a steep decline. There was also quiet knowledge of the outsized number of black men on the "down-low" that led some black women to adopt protective birth control measures.
This is an interesting question. The Guttmacher Institute has excellent statistics on all abortions and abortions broken down by race. For them, this is some kind of victory. But make no mistake: it is a victory run at the top by black women themselves.
"Is it tied into how the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs ruling seems to have made abortion more fashionable?"
for several decades now, black women have had a fairly high percentage of abortions, almost at the same rate as white women, but this was offset because black women on average tended to start having children at younger ages than white women. For the last couple of decades of the twentieth century, the teen mother figure tended to be black, and not white.
Perhaps now, black women aren't having as many children in their teenage years as before so that the stereotypical black teen mother will finally be a thing of the past. Perhaps black women are starting to bring first children to term at roughly the same age as white women (e.g. late 20's, 30's). Also, as black women tend to be employed at higher rates than black men, the black woman professional, or girl boss, tend to have fewer children than their parents and grandparents did.
So coupled with abortion (which has always been well represented with black women since Roe) as well as with DEI/AA/meritorious hires, black women are foregoing having children in their teens and early twenties at rates that they once did.
As a non-American I never fail to be surprised at how stark the black/non-black divide is in things like occupational choice and housing.
One complicating factor is the children of foreign-born back mothers which is very much on the rise. There are probably two million of these kids now and a sharp change from fifty years ago where something like 99% of black Americans were US-born to US-born parents.
How do these children of black immigrant mothers see themselves? Do they live in traditionally black neighbourhoods? Will they take up stereotypically black occupations? Will they take up a disproportionate share of black freshmen in elite colleges?
I’m curious as to whether this demographic will unbalance the black/non-black axis around which a lot of US social outcomes revolve.
I'm guessing white flight and "good schools" are a common phenomenon in Britain and Europe.
It’s hard to be categorical as in much of Europe these statistics are not collected.
But take a trip around western Europe and you will see visibly lower marital endogamy rates than in the US.
Ethnic neighbourhoods are of course a thing but they tend to be less of a monoculture and first-generation in nature.
Muslim immigrants tend to be the exceptions to the above patterns.
Aren't Muslims the main immigrant demographic in Europe?
A plurality perhaps but not a majority.
Pew Research says that 53% of migrants to Europe between 2010 and 2016 were Muslim. It's probably gotten even more Muslim in the nine years since then.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/
And they're probably undercounting illegal (mostly Muslim) migration.
P.S. Muslims are younger and have higher birth rates than natives.
Flows ≠ Stocks
It is sad to analyze I suppose, but black women are not considered attractive by a large majority of the non-black population and not even within their own race. Except in the case of a certain Supreme Court Justice, few non-black men are attracted to them. Because most black women have to support themselves, they abort their unborn children more often. The Clinton-Gingrich 1996 Welfare bill ended the Lyndon Johnson Great Society and encouraged more abortions by black women. Incidentally, Mr. Gingrich later converted to Catholicism after being rid of his second wife. He now thinks of himself as a leader in the Catholic Church. Needless to say, I find him a disgusting creature.
The OKCupid race results showed that black women and Asian men were the least desirable partners on the dating website. There was a huge backlash when the website revealed the hidden preferences on internet dating. Guess who was the most desirable? Asian women and white men.
I am only attracted to white women. I think a certain white male likes East Asian women because East Asian women tend to be submissive.
Submissive and docile. Though East Asian women are attractive objectively, especially Japanese and Thai women IMO. They are slim, have thick hair, good skin, etc. Their behavior is also feminine. Asian women also seem to love autistic white men. Richard Hanannia's wife is Asian. I would have guessed that.
I think Asian is too broad. It includes SE Asian women and southern East Asian women, like Cambodians, Vietnamese, etc. that are different from the Koreans, Japanese and Koreans.
I also think the low-rating of black women is due to American black women v. African women.
And Richard Hananiah is, of all things, Palestinian Christian-descent. I've seen Syrian Christians who could pass at the Des Moines Rotary Club. I think the Middle Eastern Christians have a lot of European DNA by way of the Greek and Roman empires.
Obama's Lebanese pal Tony Rezko claims direct descent from a Roman centurion sent to Lebanon 2000 years ago.
Hilarious! But how would he know this?
(It's very tempting to embed a Life of Brian video here. Is Rezko the gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-gr-great-grandson of John Cleese's character?)
Don't forget the Crusades! And the Ottoman royalty preferred to breed with Slavic and Circassian Caucasian women.
But the genetic similarity of Europeans and ancient Levantines may mostly come from the opposite direction: the big EEF component of European populations is also the main genetic component of ancient Levantine peoples.
One shouldn't forget the crusaders. Crac de Chevaliers and all that...
Under the instructions for filing out the FBI fingerprint card, Palestinians are white along with Egyptians, and Iranians.
Dow v. United States, 226 F. 145 (4th Cir., 1915), is a United States Court of Appeals, Fourth Circuit, case in which a Lebanese Maronite immigrant, George Dow, appealed two lower court decisions denying his application for naturalization as a United States citizen.[1]: 257 Following the lower court decisions in Ex Parte Dow (1914) and In re Dow (1914), Dow v. United States resulted in the Circuit Court's affirmation of the petitioner's right to naturalize based, in the words of Circuit Judge Charles Albert Woods, on "the generally received opinion . . . that the inhabitants of a portion of Asia, including Syria and Lebanon, [are] to be classed as white persons".[2]: 7
What part of having two graduate degrees, working a white collar job, and being a tiger mom is the feminine part?
East Asian women have the problem of having few variables. Docile. Usually thin. Black hair. Black eyes. Thin bottoms. White women have more variables. Blonde, red, brown and black hair. Ample breasts usually. Pleasant bottoms usually. Not docile.
There is always someone who has to make the "too cool for school" post while missing the point of the comment.
"black women and Asian men were the least desirable partners"
My theory is that this is the case bc black women are the most masculine of women (often larger, louder, more aggressive), and men prize femininity, whereas Asian men are the least masculine of men (often smaller, quieter, more self-effacing), and women prize masculinity.
And women are more attracted to black men (than men of any race are to black women) because black men are often very masculine (stronger musculature, jaw lines, usually more forward/aggressive).
White men, of course, usually have the most assets.
I agree though controlling for femininity and masculinity, I still think the results would be the same. Race is also a proxy for other things - assets, values, marital stability, etc.
I don't get it. Those other things don't go in the same direction - Asian men are winning on assets and marital stability.
Exactly. Plus, kids of Asian men would inherit at least 50% of parental good IQ genes and would be successful on merit. Rather, it looks as if there is a sexual selection for properties similar to "deer antler size" instead of good genes. If you look into erotic literature, it is full of this. Ronald A. Fisher of statistics fame suggested that this skewing could indeed happen in his "sexy son hypothesis"
About 15 years ago I was on a BART train in Oakland, sitting across from an early 20's Octoroon who was quite pretty and feminine, though tattooed, and also visibly 5 months pregnant. Onto the train came a young white guy, working class Oakie-Arkie type. He immediately chatted her up and asked, "do you party?" She smiled and said, "No, I have a boyfriend."
Are Octoroons that visible? Maybe half of quadroons are visible and the other half pass. But Octoroons?
1996 welfare reform bill didn't end the Great Society, but it did pare it back. And it worked:
https://reasonwithoutrestraint.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Percent-of-births-to-unmarried-mothers-by-race.png
Massive conservative victory that's rarely mentioned today, perhaps because it was bipartisan.
As to Gingrich, I disapprove of the way he treated his wife, but can't find any outrage for pretending to be Christian. If voters won't vote for anyone who's secular well then they're gonna get a "Christian."
A possible confirmation of the 1996 Welfare Reform's effectiveness is that the ethnicity whose out-of-wedlock births were least restrained by the new legislation was Hispanics, whose ranks were most supplemented by recent immigrants, who would not perceive the legislation as a new incentive against out-of-wedlock birthing.
Back when Congress actually governed.
Social media has turned Congress into a parliament of pundits.
It's a done deal.
He served her divorce papers when she was hospitalized?
At least he wasn't as dumb as former Congressman Bob Barr, who paid for his soon-to-be divorced wife's abortion with a personal check. Which she got the stamped copy of back at the family home as be was marrying his next wife.
What is this Supreme Court justice reference?
The famous OK Cupid statistics showed that black women are indeed preferred by black men, just not by anybody else.
It's true that black women use abortion more than other races, but I don't know if there is any consensus as to why.
According to the Guttmacher Institute, black women are about tied with Hispanic women in letting unintended pregnancies go to term (48 unintended pregnancies go to term per 1000 black women per year versus 50 for Hispanic women (versus 24 for white women) https://www.guttmacher.org/graphics/gpr1103/Stark-Contrasts.gif ). So if the higher black abortion rates are due to having to support themselves, the logic isn't carrying over to not getting unintendedly pregnant in the first place.
And as the the groups with higher abortion rates have even higher unintended pregnancy rates, it's possible that abortion's availability actually diminishes responsibility about getting pregnant, such that it ironically leads to more unintended pregnancies going to term: the opposite of what Margaret Sanger, Planned Parenthood, and the Guttmacher Institute said would happen.
Justice Kentanji Brown Jackson's white husband is one of the rarities of the world.
True
An excerpt from an email I sent Steve years ago:
"The idea is that at some point in the future, within a number of generations, the white American birthrate will become higher than the birthrate of other races. That doesn't mean it will be very high. It could still be quite low, even below replacement level, but still higher than other races.
The reason I think this could happen is that at the causative level, I think whites may be best-positioned to become adapted to the environmental effects that cause low birthrates.
Intuitively, you could say there are two ways people arrive at not having children. First, there are the people who are too smart, busy, and educated to form families. They marry late, they become buried in work. Chronologically this is the effect that came first, giving rise to the Idiocracy narrative.
But there's also a second, newer cohort - the people who are too dumb, lazy and distracted to form families. In the past, such people ended up having children mainly because they had little else to do with their time, and because the norms of birth control usage hadn't yet fully permeated their subcultures. In our world of endless cheap digital distractions, I believe that's increasingly no longer the case.
So what we have is a classic high-low effect impacting birthrates. Which race is best positioned to be the first to become adapted/resistant to such an effect? In true Rushtonian tradition, white people. The race that's smart but not too smart, motivated but not too motivated, vigorous but not too vigorous.
Furthermore, even without getting into these details, at a very high level it just seems logical that if the white birthrate was the first to crash, it will also be the first to rise. Trends are often cyclical."
I agree with your assessment. I have been reading people's theories in the comment section of Twitter for years about the fertility crisis and recently someone had a similar assessment of why the birthrate is low that I hadn't seen before. That is, as you put it, people are "too smart, busy, and educated to form families". Thinking about it myself, I know lots of friends and family that fall into this category.
On the other hand, you are also right, that the lower classes have their own reasons, which is that they don't want the burden of having kids to take away from their fun so they use birth control more so than before. There are also newer innovations in BC than just the pill, there are some implantable things in your arm that stop your cycle. I wonder of those have gone more "viral" with young women.
Personally my wife and I are both college educated, homeowners, with good middle management jobs. We're not exceptionally talented, neither of us are going to found a start up or become C-Suite executives. We stopped at 2, that's all we have the energy for. If I were an ultra high earner and she didn't have to work, and we could afford our basic needs + some luxuries, then we would have a 3rd.
I had an unexpected positive shock to income in my early 30s that allowed my wife to take a few years off work.
My wife and I probably wouldn’t have had our 3rd child without it.
Anecdotes are worthless.
Statistics is just anecdotes writ large. I think Steve once said "if one is not aware of anecdotes that align with such and such point shown by a statistic, it could be that the statistic should be interrogated a bit more". And sure, I heard of many instances of "Approved Posture"' experience.
One could not be more wrong. The plural of anecdotes is not data.
The plural of anecdote is, in fact, data. Well technically ‘survey’, but this is a kind of data.
More valuable than your comment though!
No, because people who think in terms of anecdotes usually get statistics or just descriptive statistics very wrong. Think about Steve's obsession with blacks overestimating the number of blacks shot by the police in a year.
I make a comfortable living explaining statistics to people who don’t have the grasp that I do.
Black women are among the demographics of women getting degrees, pursuing careers. Many are encouraged to prioritize their own financial well being before pursuing marriage. Regardless of their income status. A lot of millennial and Gen American born black women were not allowed to date in Highschool and entered college without that experience of navigating partnerships that would result in marriages and children. Shows like Teen Mom and witnessing firsthand how children could alter a young woman’s trajectory, most young women are careful.
Between the crime statistics of domestic violence, and looking out at men their age, they’re willing to wait to have children instead of subjecting their progeny to a miserable existence due to controllable factors.
Maybe it's student loan debt that's slowing their birth rates.
Black women are among the demographics of women getting degrees, pursuing careers. Many are encouraged to prioritize their own financial well being before pursuing marriage. Regardless of their income status. A lot of millennial and Gen American born black women were not allowed to date in Highschool and entered college without that experience of navigating partnerships that would result in marriages and children. Shows like Teen Mom and witnessing firsthand how children could alter a young woman’s trajectory, most young women are careful.
Between the crime statistics of domestic violence, and looking out at men their age, they’re willing to wait to have children instead of subjecting their progeny to a miserable existence due to controllable factors.
The gender achievement gap in education is largest for blacks and smallest for Asians but does exist for every ethnic or racial group.
They are getting degrees in subjects correlated with low lifetime earnings due to them being affiliated with the college students who have the lowest IQs. They fail to go into any industry that allows them to build a functional first world community without subsidization from others. For instance, if you look at the number of black women with college degrees and then look at the number of black women with government jobs, you’ll see a huge overlap. Something like more than 70% of black women with a bachelor’s degree work for government. That means their way of making money is done through the tax payer’s dime. These are the high performing black women. Few of them go into fields that require tangible work such as construction, welding, wastewater treatment, civil engineering, robotics, etc. The average black woman without a bachelor’s works as a CNA (wiping old peoples’ butts) or a home health aide. Sprinkle in some customer service at a call center or a cashier (both if these are low paying obsolete jobs), and that’s the most effective the average black woman makes. You’ll have your “educated” black teachers who don’t understand phonics or morphology who likely majored in education (one of the lowest IQ majors).
So, these women may be getting degrees, but do they have hard technical skills that allow them to outperform others? Real skills. Not this bs about coming up with some idea guide for nonsense. Until 80%+ of such women have those particular skills and apply them in their day to day life, your attempt at positive lighting towards these women is mute. What percentage of such women can start up real businesses (not the nonsense body oils, lotions, hair nonsense they release on a yearly basis) such that they make enough in revenue to hire people in the U.S. on an appropriate salary and good health insurance?
Covid lockdowns may have encouraged family formation and hysteresis could account for persistence. Homicides and deaths of exuberance may have outweighed these for black women.
If you look at the charts, there is a noticeable bump in white women's fertility following (2021) the covid lockdowns.
While there isn't a similar bump in black women's fertility, there is a later (2022+) rise in foreign born black women's fertility. That may be lockdown-related, but I suspect it was simply that the Biden administration's open border policy waved in a big new tranche of foreign-born black women who wasted little time in dropping anchor babies.
First World expectations. Despite all the persecutions and other inequalities between native Black and Whites, Black Americans have enjoyed at least part of the benefits of First World status -- as ought be.
Applying anti racism to outsiders is denying the descendants of American slaves their hard won birthright. Fun fact: Black America has more nativist cred than Whit America. THAT should be the real lesson of the 1619 Project.
Another positive environmental development that is being--slightly--undone by immigration.
There are several pretty obvious lessons one can learn from US history. But however you assign causality for America's racial division/tragedy importing more blacks into the US, would count as just some cosmic level of knuckleheadedness--of failure to learn from your mistakes. Except, of course--again--we know the problem is here is not really stupidity but really the grotesque error of allowing the formation of an elite hostile to the nation itself.
I would assume it’s because in the last 5 years a lot of impulsive young men who don’t concern themselves with the consequences of their thrill seeking in sex and violence have been removed from the gene pool by the latter so there is less of the former.
That's a plausible hypothesis, but ...
1) The decreasing black birth trend started before the May 2020 kickoff of the Racial reckoning.
2) If I remember Steve's numbers correctly, maybe 10,000-20,000 "additional" black men (and maybe 5,000-10,000 black women) have been killed by the Racial Reckoning in the George Floyd Era. But eyeballing the black birth chart above, maybe 500,000 births that would formerly have occurred didn't happen in the same period. Granted that the additional black homicide victims probably disproportionately come from the serial baby-daddying (and serial baby-mammaing) class, but still, even the maximum case of 30,000 "missing" parents is not really sufficient to pin 500,000 "missing" births on in just ~four years.
3) Historically, violence and sex go hand-in-hand quite often, e.g., WWII and the Baby Boom (that started before the war was over), as if the one calls forth the other.
So I think your hypothesis could be part of it, but there is also something else going on that is at least as strong.
For sure there must be multiple factors at play. Obviously abortions being utilized more is one, and perhaps there is some cultural impetus that made black women work harder at avoiding pregnancy as well.
Women are the reproductive, genetic and population bottleneck. The relatively few self-deleting young men would not preclude women from procreating. American population rose between 1860 and 1870, as a hint.
There are women among the "additional" Racial Reckoning deaths too, but I think Boulevardier was suggesting that the self-thinning of the sexy-bad-boy ranks may have turned off edge cases of the potential-baby-mamma ranks from procreation.
IMHO there probably are a few such cases but too few to be explanatory.
That, and it's not like every one of the sexy-bad-boy ranks were murdered or went to prison.
Yeah, in theory one sexy-bad-boy can impregnate a near infinite number of women, but in practice it does actually take some time and effort and involve some drag coefficients (e.g. slighted baby mama narcing you out to the cops) such that fewer sexy-bad-boys = fewer pregnancies, if not at a 1:1 rate.
True.
However, even when black violence is at its worst, it's only a relatively small percentage of sexy-bad-boys taking themselves out of circulation either by means of being deleted or incarcerated. There are still plenty around to get with the existing women.
In terms of the black/white question poised, I'd imagine blacks--black fertility--has simply been hit much harder by a whole lot of the stupidities inflicted upon us in the Saint-George/Biden/Mayorkas era.
However, another factor would seem relevant and that is that white women would have gotten smart phones--and been subject to their effects--earlier than black women. But by the late teens absolutely everyone was on board. (I was probably one of that last to surrender my flip phone when it was no longer supported a few years ago.)
Would it be racist to predict that, in the late 2030s, the American murder rate will fall by 23%?
Yes.
And also likely accurate.
Assuming that immigration is zero.
I'm going to guess that coincides with a reduction in the free money the US gives per child
Follow The Money is always a good method!
It should be verifiable, if someone has the time...
Easy theory is the Planned Parenthood. But that was available when the black TFR rate peaked concomitant (and probably also because of) the peak of the crack era. My theory is that it's just the same lethargy about procreation, for all the various valid reasons why it has been happening, that has affected every group of young women in the world except in sub-Saharan black Africa, finally getting around to affecting black American women.
As you say, Planned Parenthood has been available for a much longer while. As I said*, Planned Parenthood may (ironically) be responsible for the surge in unintended pregnancies in the first place.
So yeah, it may just be that the various anti-natal forces are finally affecting black women, which is kind of what IHTG commented above.**
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* https://open.substack.com/pub/stevesailer/p/births-to-african-american-women?r=18q98a&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=141028286
** https://open.substack.com/pub/stevesailer/p/births-to-african-american-women?r=18q98a&utm_campaign=comment-list-share-cta&utm_medium=web&comments=true&commentId=140936322
> That may be lockdown-related, but I suspect it was simply that the Biden administration's open border policy waved in a big new tranche of foreign-born black women who wasted little time in dropping anchor babies.<
Bingo. Great, spot on point Almost. I suspect Port-au-Prince, Ohio (formerly Springfield) could probably account for several hundreds, if not a thousand--1/3--of that upswing by itself.
The hatred "our" "elites" for the flyover white peasantry simply knows no bounds.
And I'm still waiting for Trump to do something--anything. Wade in there--take the "racist!" abuse--and actually *reverse* this for the everlasting benefit of future Americans. Now, while the invaders are still "immigrants" is when deportation can very easily be done. Each step after that is 10x harder.
Trump has been willing to take on the clucking class on tariffs/trade--and in the process clearly demonstrated from the negotiations that yeah, the "global trade regime" was skewed against the US, based on basically the US piling up debt and seeing its assets looted.
Now Trump needs to work on 0something that really, really, really matters. If you will not actually reverse invasion, then you are accepting an invasion step function--every time the Parasite Party is in power, they flood the joint with their future clients/voters. Not reversing that and deporting en masse is accepting the Great Replacement--the destruction of the West, the genocide of the white race.
‘the "global trade regime" was skewed against the US, based on basically the US piling up debt and seeing its assets looted’
The imbalance is one of time, not power. Americans sold to the rest of the world and chose to spend the foreign currency they earned on foreign goods.
And foreigners who sold to America chose to bank or invest the dollars they earned for a return instead of buying American goods.
That’s it. Nothing was ever looted.
Sad facts: there really are many fewer eligible-for-fatherhood-and-employment black men, and many black men are in prison. In 1996, in a well-intentioned bipartisan effort, Gingrich and Clinton enacted welfare-to-work requirements, with lots of childcare and other support, but only for mothers. Black fathers thus became even more alienated from family involvement and advancement, as 70-75% of women left welfare (but not other social services) and at least started modeling a productive, employed life for their children. Black girls especially responded to this carrot-and-stick behavior, as it was aimed at females. And finally, pro-choice groups (I intentionally use a group's own identification of itself and ask the same of them) were taken over by/intentionally handed to black women from the mid-90's onward. This particular iteration of political correctness on the part of true-believer board members resulted in abortion "advocacy" becoming far more widespread in the black community at the same time as church involvement was on a steep decline. There was also quiet knowledge of the outsized number of black men on the "down-low" that led some black women to adopt protective birth control measures.
This is an interesting question. The Guttmacher Institute has excellent statistics on all abortions and abortions broken down by race. For them, this is some kind of victory. But make no mistake: it is a victory run at the top by black women themselves.
"Is it tied into how the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs ruling seems to have made abortion more fashionable?"
for several decades now, black women have had a fairly high percentage of abortions, almost at the same rate as white women, but this was offset because black women on average tended to start having children at younger ages than white women. For the last couple of decades of the twentieth century, the teen mother figure tended to be black, and not white.
Perhaps now, black women aren't having as many children in their teenage years as before so that the stereotypical black teen mother will finally be a thing of the past. Perhaps black women are starting to bring first children to term at roughly the same age as white women (e.g. late 20's, 30's). Also, as black women tend to be employed at higher rates than black men, the black woman professional, or girl boss, tend to have fewer children than their parents and grandparents did.
So coupled with abortion (which has always been well represented with black women since Roe) as well as with DEI/AA/meritorious hires, black women are foregoing having children in their teens and early twenties at rates that they once did.
Among other factors.