16 Comments
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Craig in Maine's avatar

97x seems a bit extreme, almost as if “Black Lives don’t Matter “.

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Ralph L's avatar

Are "as likely" and "more likely" interchangeable here?

I remember a WaPoo map of c.1990 homicides: hundreds in black SE and NE, many in 2 or 3 spots, and all of one in white NW. That was before gentrification started, and DC had about 200k fewer people than now.

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Perry Arcone's avatar

Are "as likely" and "more likely" interchangeable here?

I would say “no.” 97x as likely would be equivalent to 96x more likely.

Let’s see whether Steve replies to your query.

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countenanceblog the expat's avatar

"Crime is down," so saith the narrativemongers.

Of course, this is compared to the 2020 highs. Which I knew even then were unsustainably high, even for Bell Curve City, and were inevitably going to come down due to nothing more complicated than good ole fashioned regression to the mean. Galton wins again.

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SkyCallCentre's avatar

The benchmark year that tells us whether or not crime today is too high should not be 2020 or even 1990. It should be 1960.

Because why should it be any higher? If you could go back and tell people from the '50s what kind of crime fighting resources are available today they would assume we barely have any crime at all.

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Elli's avatar

Back in the 1940s, starting when she was 8, my little blond mother would take the bus by herself from Arlington to DC to do the family shopping. No trouble ever.

Of course that was when there were open fields in Arlington and she could catch butterflies.

How the government and all its hangers-on have grown.

Somehow all that force - and it is force - hasn't made things safer.

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George Kocan's avatar

Several years ago, Chicago Magazine published a two part series on crime. The articles pointed out that the police department fudged the crime numbers to make them look low. I lived in Chicago and still have family there. One relative knows personally a few cops and they tell him that many crimes and so common that they are not even reported. I am reasonably sure that the same occurs in other big cities dominated by Democrats.

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MikeCLT's avatar

There you go again, Steve, discussing race and crime calmly and rationally. Let's hope Trump keeps doing smart things like fighting crime rather than dumb things.

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Fabius Minarchus's avatar

Mighty interesting how crime exploded during the 1960s -- before Home Rule. How much of that was the sense of revolution at the time? How much due to less racist policing? How much to The Great Society. And how much was simply Baby Booomers entering their peak crime years?

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George Shay's avatar

Democrats work against the interests of their black base when they resist reforms.

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Boulevardier's avatar

As someone who lived in DC for a decent length of time including in a black neighborhood, one of the things I immediately learned is that 95% of whites have zero idea of what goes on day to day in majority black communities, including whites who live in DC but in the nice parts of NW. Every single day you are reminded that their culture is completely different from your own, and it's just automatic, not some conscious reaction against whiteness. I could go on for paragraph after paragraph with examples, but the bottom line is that blacks are quite comfortable with a level of disorder and dysfunction in their environment that is hard for people to believe without having seen it firsthand. Usually the response is "that's not representative of all of them" and it's not, but it is for a large enough share that it inflicts huge amounts of economic and cultural damage that far outstrips everyone else.

This of course has all sorts of terrible downstream effects, obviously with an incredible murder rate being a prominent one. Since the civil rights era, our cultural overlords have successfully inculcated a taboo against open discussion of any of this, and to the extent it can be addressed it's only obliquely, such are references to "youth" or "root causes." This is changing however, and Trump's willingness to essentially usurp black political leadership is moving the Overton window. However it goes, it opens the door to more people questioning the competency of black leaders in addressing persistent problems - and they should, as their record is essentially unblemished by success. From there, we will see an erosion of the primacy of black political demands in our culture, and once those are relegated to their proper place (last) then we can have a better functioning society and perhaps reclaim larger areas of our cities.

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RevelinConcentration's avatar

This is why any sane and humane person despises the BLM movement.

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AnotherDad's avatar

> Blacks are 97x As Likely to Be Murdered in D.C. <

That's because D.C. whites' direct their murderous impulses outward toward us flyover whites, not toward each other.

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Gary S.'s avatar

The Free Press is starting to catch on. They shut off commenting before I found their article, or I'd have posted at least two links to Steve's postings right here. Astonishing it is that the Free Press author thinks anyone would be surprised at his conclusion.

https://www.thefp.com/p/the-murder-rate-is-plummeting-youll

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air dog's avatar

I hope young D’Quarvious behaves himself.

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Jehu's avatar

So what happens if Trump goes whole hog on bringing order to DC and basically resets it to 1950s/early 1960s before the JFK assassination levels of cleanliness and Order? It's not like it's a major challenge to pretty much suppress all street level crime. But what would DC being a shining beacon of Order do? Would it cause other city-dwellers in the US to demand their city follow suit?

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