Changes in Altitude, Changes in Aptitude

How much of a role does evolutionary racial adaptation to high elevation play in sports?

One of the more interesting World Cup round of 32 knockout games will be on Tuesday when co-host Mexico (3-0-0, 6 goals scored, zero allowed) plays at home in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City at 7,200 feet of elevation (2,200 meters) against Ecuador (1-1-1, 2 goals scored, 2 allowed).

So far, Mexico has won twice in Mexico City at 7,200 feet and once in Guadalajara at 5,100 feet.

If it wins on Tuesday, it plays once more in Mexico City in the round of 16 (probably against England), and then would have to finish out in the U.S. at low altitude.

I’ve been interested in the effects of altitude on sports since the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City.

The U.S. track team realized that holding the Olympics at such high altitude had strong implications. So they made the American trials a 2 stage process. In early summer, semifinals trials were held in L.A., with the better performers invited to train all summer at 7,300 feet in the parking lot of a ski mountain near Lake Tahoe. Then the final trials were held in September in the parking lot.

The U.S. Olympic track team set many long-enduring sprint records at the Mexico City Games. For example, Jimmy Hines ran a 9.95 hundred meters the first electronically measured time under 10 seconds, and the only one for another decade and a half. (Of course, besides the altitude, it might have helped that the U.S. track team doctor Kay Dooley was a public advocate of steroids use.)

In contrast, the most famous American middle distance runner of the era, Jim Ryun (a future Republican congressman from Kansas), lost the 1,500 meters to Kip Keino of Kenya in Mexico City. This famous race pretty much unleashed the Kenyans on the world of distance running.

There are only about 77% as many oxygen atoms per breath at this altitude compared to at sea level, so the elevation has an effect on the aerobic demands of the game. The ball also experiences less air resistance, so kicks fly faster and further, but it’s harder to curve shots.

Also, higher elevations are cooler, about 3.6 degrees F per 1000 feet. So Mexico City’s high on Tuesday is forecast to be 71 F rather than 97 F.

In general, host country teams win about 5/8ths of the time. The crowd fires up the players and intimidates the refs. Host country squads don’t have to deal with jet lag, weird foreign food, and strange facilities. Plus they are more likely to have their Wives And Girlfriends keeping an eye on them so they get to bed early. (There’s also a documented smaller benefit to teams from countries on the same continent as the host.)

This is the third World Cup to be at least partially hosted in Mexico City. Brazil won the 1970 final over Italy in Pele’s last hurrah, and Argentina beat West Germany in 1986 in Maradona’s big year. Mexico made it to the quarter-finals both times, it’s best performance ever.

So, who will benefit from the elevation on Tuesday: Mexico or Ecuador?

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