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Andy P's avatar

Brandon Johnson- Chicago. Erick Adams- NYC Mayor. I think you combined the names.

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E. H. Hail's avatar

Chicago homicide rate, since 2016: 25-to-30 per 100,000 population (except for a reprieve between about late-2017 and May 2020).

In the 1920s to early 1930s, the peak-"gangster" era (as semi-fictionalized in the Untouchables movie), the homicide rate only hit about 15 per 100,000. A high rate for a White population.

The long-run average before Black in migration was 5-to-10 per 100,000, also pretty high for a White population.

Caveats for cross-time comparisons are that with modern medicine, the early-20th-century rates would be several points lower (i.e., more gunshot victims and such would survive), and would also be revised down for any age-adjustment (younger average-age populations will always have higher homicide rates). Old Chicago was never particularly dangerous by today's standards.

What Chicago became after the mid-1960s crime rise is something unrecognizable, strange, troubling, post-Western. Dangerous, in many ways, in that families would tend to want to get out. Large areas of the city proper never returned to White-Western standards of normalcy. A creeping-rot Third-Worldization visible in the homicide-data.

Some parts of the city have near-zero homicides (gangs specifically targeting Whites in their neighborhoods, South Africa style, has not apparently yet happened). But the overall homicide rate implies a lifetime-chance of death by homicide of 2%, to 2.5% for the hypothetical statistically-median person who spends a lifetime in Chicago. It's such a shame, and a further shame that it's allowed to continue by the leaders of that city.

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