If Trump has a stroke tomorrow, what happens?
Would the Republicans handle it better than the Democrats have handled Biden?
It depends upon what happens.
If Trump drops dead after he announces his VP choice, then I would imagine the great man’s dying wish would be honored and Trump’s VP selection would become the Presidential candidate by acclamation. Most of Trump’s potential VP short list appears to be not unreasonable, so it would hardly be worth it for the GOP to not do what Trump would have wanted.
Of course, Trump has been delaying announcing his VP because of the sudden uncertainty over which Democrat he will be running against. Delay gives him more time to figure out what the Democrats will do and adjust his choice accordingly.
And, why distract attention from the Democrats right now?
Still, it would be nice if Trump had told somebody trustworthy (Ivanka?) who his preliminary VP pick is at present, so if he suddenly dies, she could come forward and reveal his wish.
But, with the Republican convention starting next Monday in Milwaukee, Trump has at most one week to announce his choice.
If Trump dies between the convention and the election, then his VP candidate would certainly move up.
But what if Trump has a major medical event from which it is unclear if he will ever recover, one so bad that he’s not conscious to announce whether he’s carrying on or withdrawing in favor of his VP choice?
It would be good if Trump put down in writing a decision-making process that he agrees to abide by. Maybe a majority vote of his five children?
What would be especially worrisome for Republican partisans is if Trump suffered a minor stroke that did some damage (e.g., his speech becomes somewhat slurred), but not massive damage. If he stays in, this could eliminate Trump’s current edge against Biden, if Biden stays in, and make the GOP look bad if the Democrats have a vigorous new candidate by then.
But there is such a Trump cult of personality among Republicans that feeds off Trump’s ego that it would be likely Trump would stay in and take the GOP down with him.
The PredictIt betting-market's currently implied odds on who Trump will choose as VP for 2024:
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- 25% J. D. Vance (steady rise since early June; at ca.15% in week before debate)
- 23% Doug Burgum (peaked at 35%+ in late June)
- 12% Marco Rubio
- 8% Glenn Youngkin
- 6.5% Ben Carson
- 5% Tim Scott
- 5% Tulsi Gabbard 5%
- 5% Vivek "Mr. H1b" Ramaswammamaiey
- 2.5% Elise "Zionism o Muerte!" Stefanik
- 1.5% Byron Donalds (Black Congressman, Fox News darling)
- 1.5% Kristi Noem (coasted at ca. 15%, until a late-April story claimed she shot a sick farm-dog)
- 1.5% Tom Cotton
- <1% Nikki Haley
- <1% Sarah Huckabee Sanders
- ca. 1% All others
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8069/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-vice-presidential-nomination
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Aggregate betting-market odds by demographic
- Odds DJT chooses a White 'non-Hispanic' male: 58%
- Odds DJT chooses a Hispanic: 12% (Rubio)
- Odds DJT chooses a Black VP: 13%
- Odds DJT chooses a woman VP: 11%
-Odds DJT chooses an Indian Subcontinent-origin VP: 6%
It would be wild if both conventions were free-for-alls, like the end of that Roman Empire movie after Commodus dies. Not good for the country, but maybe things need to get really bad before they can get better. Strange and scary that both the UK and France have voted themselves into accelerated nosedives at the same time we're in unstable limbo.