To replace the Iranian gov w a western friendly one would massively stabilize the region. That being said, how are they going to do that exactly from the air? They are literally counting on them to do it voluntarily.
When Gaza started, I lost a lot of friends when I said the only way this makes sense is if you put a Rwanda style security net of military police at every corner or it won’t work. They still won’t do that. Iran is much bigger, but what is the plan for a new gov structure? The Kurds aren’t an option.
No, I knew they would go in and a strong military occupation would have prevented deaths. Me harassing Jews and being holier than thou like you are would not be an answer, although I hope you enjoy yourself doing so.
My impression is Israel has accomplished what it needed by killing perhaps as many as 180,000 Gazans and keeping the rest living in piles of concrete. Please note I am not critical of them taking out that lunatic asylum.
The whole idea behind Israel hate promotion from MSM is that it will win sympathy from you know whom. That the concept doesn't work doesn't stop the MSM machine that does it. So I would classify it as an unquestionable core belief. Is that something psychoanalysts call a taboo?
Iran is suffering the consequences of their backwardsness, but they could be a big ally of Israel and the west if the ayatollah idiots were out of power (chances less than likely).
I try to be respectful on these comments sections but the level of ignorance of recent history this shows is to me, staggering. I actually need to take a break now. You think Israel is the country that doesn't want to make peace with its neighbors? How does that even happen to your brain? It's like being a flat earther. You're trolling, right? Please tell me you're trolling.
yep. I guess a site that allows discussion of forbidden topics should expect all comers. I just don't want them to assume that everyone who agrees with them on. e.g immigration policy or isolationism agrees with everything
The difference is that the Iranians already have a functioning democracy. If Trump can make a deal with the military guys to remove the Mullah's veto and we remove the sanctions, Iran could go back to being a functional country.
Breaking Gaza into 4-5 emirates without access to the beach front and with 2-3 km broad spaces inbetween the emirates would have done the job. One doesn't need military police on every corner - Yehuda and Shomron clearly shows that. But it seems that the Israelis didn't get green light from the US. Or Israelis themselves wanted to keep Gaza as a semi-controllable challenge?
I had previously said that I don’t know much about this conflict, and I still don’t , but I have been watching the reactions. Many are saying this will be catastrophic for Trump and that it’s Iraq 2.0, but I beg to differ. This feels different to me. I also get the sense that people are reacting so strongly against this war purely because they got Iraq so wrong, and they simply don’t want to get it wrong like that again. Iraq went badly, but then again, we destroyed Iraq, took the oil, and the contractors got paid for quite some time. Isn’t that what they wanted?
As far as why Trump would risk this, I don’t get it either. Maybe he’s looking for a really big win if it goes as well as he thinks it will. Maybe Netanyahu or deep state actors have something on him. Idk.
Holding democratic elections in Iraq led inevitably to a Shia government dominated by its large Shia neighbor Iran (just as the effect of deposing the dictator in Egypt was to put the Muslim Brotherhood in power). After 47 years of dictatorship is there a big pro-western opposition movement in the wings waiting to take power? Do we really understand the region any better than a quarter-century ago?
Holding democratic elections in Iraq was one of the most epically stupid moves in history, particularly when anyone with even the most casual knowledge of the country and its demographics knew exactly what was going to result. That's the kind of thing that happens when ideologues (of any stripe) run the show. I expect that of "progressives". I was awfully disappointed that it came out of the likes of my "evil imperialist" buddies like Cheney. Realpolitik gets a bad name, but it's... real.
Very early on, our designing Iraq's new national flag and planning down to the computer terminals their spiffy new stock market was when I got off the train.
It is a quarter century of humiliation after humiliation
At the end of which we are despised, poor, and the plan once Iran is sufficiently wrecked (Israel just wants a mess there, not a new regime) is to discard us in a ditch
If you can’t see this… I mean this blog is about Noticing right?
Yeah, it’s “what they wanted”, but it didn’t help the American people at all. So if you are most concerned about lining defense contractors wallets, then this is great. But for those of us who are chiefly concerned about quality of life for the average American, it’s not looking good.
Iran is a large mountain-enclosed country with an intact state and military that will fight, unlike Saddam Hussein’s. A ground war would lead immediately to large US casualties which I doubt Trump will stomach.
Ground war would be absolutely retarded and at this point logistically infeasible, the US hasn't established air superiority and all of our bases surrounding the country are at minimum under threat.
You're entirely correct, but I don't think it's a good betting strategy with the US government to assume something won't happen because of how obviously stupid it'd be to do it.
The US hasn't established air superiority??? We are flying anywhere we want and bombing with impunity. In a week of war, not a single casualty over Iran, and the only dead (regrettably) so far are six reservists ostensibly out of the war zone caught the first day in a single lucky hit on a glorified trailer park. I don't know what you think "air superiority" is, but that's everybody else's definition.
I'm guessing the drone/interceptor mismatch as well as the potentially serious Iranian ballistic missile attacks to come once the Patriots and THAADs run out is what challenges the reality of "air superiority" (or, more realistically, supremacy).
I'd guess that we've bombed enough launchers and destroyed enough of their stock of missiles and drones that it won't be much of an issue. Unless they've managed to put together a nuke or two, as I've long suspected.
If there is one thing the last five years has taught us, it's that the internet will reenforce whatever POV you come to it with. So if you are a slavering Jew hater who so very much wants Iran to win this, you will see YouTube videos assuring you that the US/Israel have not established air supremacy, let along superiority.
Of course the same thing happens to me so how do I know that we have established air supremecy. I don't obviously, but most of what I see supports that position and very little supports the other.
We’ve been totally vindicated. Anyone here saying otherwise is blinded by years of neocon/neolib propaganda and likely didn’t vote for Trump in ‘16. The whole reason he was elected in the first place was to rebuke these kinds of wars. Now he’s been subsumed by the blob. If people defending this war actually did vote for Trump in ‘16, then they’ve completely abandoned or forgotten about the original meaning of MAGA. MAGA is dead, apparently it just means blind loyalty to Trump now. And Trump has blind loyalty to the former never-Trumpers now advising him.
The Iranian government is something out of the 12th century. They own all the oil and print money whenever they need it; since they're first in line they don't feel the effects and it doesn't matter. Meanwhile a country that should rival the US for living standards is a dreary Muslim dump. But I don't see any scenario where they lose power without US soldiers marching into the place and destroying them. Also Iran has 91 million people. How many of them support their fanatical Shia government--10 million, 20 million, 30 million, 50 million? I have no idea.
Does the Trump administration know something I don't? Does the CIA have an interim leader on ice somewhere waiting to swoop in? Are we in touch with the Iranian Ataturkists? Does anything like that exist? Again, no idea.
I find it difficult to believe that the Trump administration decided to take this leap without some sort of shadow government waiting to get installed. Did everybody just nod in agreement when Trump and whoever said we'll just blow stuff up for a zillion dollars a day and see what happens? I would find it very out of character for our Developer-in-Chief, who has so far always kept an ace as his hole card. But maybe i'm overestimating him this time.
Still too soon to tell, Steve. But I will be greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up and see what happens. It's not like we don't have things to worry about and spend our global reserve currency on here.
"The Iranian government is something out of the 12th century. They own all the oil and print money whenever they need it; since they're first in line they don't feel the effects and it doesn't matter."
Well who does that remind me off. The guys that own all the oil and wealth are the government.
"But I will be greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up and see what happens."
You mean like Syria, Libya, Ukraine and everything else US has done for 20 years?
Trump is a departure from previous administrations and has plenty of enemies and ex-employees and out of work contractors inside the Beltway. He had nothing to do with Libya or Ukraine.
Syria, we had Ahmed al-Sharaa waiting to roll out when even Assad's own clan got tired of him.
The difference is in Obama's time you could speak nice play dirty and no one dare speak out. Now you have to speak as dirty as you can to maintain the last bit of threat, but acts are much milder (hence all the bragging about kidnapping a couple of Venezuelans). Iran seems to be a mistake - as will be revealed i expect soon. But it isn't Taiwan or Ukraine (which was wholly a Biden aggression).
as-Sharaa/Joolani had been one of our terrorists for 20 years - the whole terror thing in Syria was US co-ordinated with strong UK, Israel Saudi and Turkish support. It was all planned back in 2006 or earlier (GenWesley Clarke explained it all)
Frankly anyone who understands anything about ME knows how deep US has been into terror groups all this time. Hand held by Israel.
Iranian Ataturkists. Sigh. We stood by as the real Ataturkists, the only positive force in the whole Muslim world, were purged by Erdoğan, and NATO member Turkey became an enemy. Sigh.
Sometimes I look back on when the evil CIA ran the world and get a little misty.
> "How many of them support their fanatical Shia government ... ?"
There are about 10 million directly on the government's payroll, at least a million of whom are also armed (military, police, etc.).
So that leaves ~80 million unaccounted for. Well, not completely unaccounted for. Contra the propaganda, Iran does have elections, and the elections are probably no more corrupt than certain US states. So the Iranian government probably enjoys at least as much support as the average western European government currently (admittedly a low bar, but you get the idea).
But crucially, the armed Iranians almost all seem to be on the government's side, and the worse things get, the more their support matters.
Maaaybe, the anti-Persian forces will have some success hiving off less important provinces using non-Persian militias, e.g., Kurds, Azeris, etc., but none of those militias want to face a million enemy without massive fire support. And the militias' neighbors (e.g., Iraq, Turkey, etc.) don't necessarily want those militias to succeed lest they set the wrong example for their own restive minorities, so the militias can't count on too much local logistical cooperation.
tl;dr: Without mass defections of the Iranian security state, it's hard to see any path to victory without a nation-breaking commitment of ground forces. Short of that, the only visible exit strategy is just to blow up a bunch of stuff, declare "victory", and go home. I.e, the same thing the US did in the Twelve-Day War.
Well, you can foresee that, I can foresee that, but the people we handed all the status and nukes to didn't foresee that? Was it even discussed?
This is why I still entertain libertarianism. These people are overdue for being dragged from behind their desks while their offices are burned to the ground.
I'm delighted to be proved wrong, but I really don't see a good way forward from here. How much of a country do you need to overthrow an established government? I'd say you need at least a committed third, and a third of those need to be willing to trade small arms fire with professional soldiers.
From what I'm reading it seems there was no plan, no end game other than we just hoped several million Iranians would overthrow their well-armed, religiously motivated government. And of course this is all funny money; USG expenditures departed from actual revenues long ago. Remind me again why I'm still paying taxes?
The Iranians have a democracy with one catch--The mullahs get to decide whether or not you can run in the first place. This means there is a possibility (contrast with literally every other country in the Middle East save one) for a functioning democracy in Iran. it's possible the militaries (the regular and special palace guard types) might get tired of all this and agree to some kind of deal with Trump. My impression is that most of the economic misery in the country is due to our sanctions on them. So there is a path where the rump of the council of Mullah's quietly disbands at half-time while some military coalition steps in to secure the country while the existing bureaucracy runs things.
If we don't demand the analog of debathificion it might work and they limp along until the next election.
> "The mullahs get to decide whether or not you can run in the first place."
In other words, exactly like Europe where the EU or courts or civil servants decide whether your party or candidate is allowed to run, and if they run whether they are allowed to win or whether a cordon sanitaire must separate them from actual office: the same role the US media, judiciary, and civil service would like to appoint itself. The only difference is that in Iran the 'Guardians' are Shia theocrats while in the West the 'guardians' are Woke theocrats.
> "contrast with literally every other country in the Middle East save one"
Iraq has elections. Turkey has elections. Lebanon has elections. Kuwait has elections. Algeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have held elections in recent years. Even the Jordanian monarchy has an elected parliament. You can say those elections aren't properly representative, but that's the same complaint Americans and Europeans make about their elections.
Yes, I'm unconvinced by the constant framing of the Islamic Republic as the Most Backward Government on Earth. Really, is it worse than a typical sub-Saharan dictatorship? Worse than the ANC in South Africa? Worse than North Korea or Turkmenistan or the Junta in Burma? Worse than the Wahabbists in Saudi or the sectarians in Lebanon? Worse than Cuba or Venezuela?!
"I find it difficult to believe that the Trump administration decided to take this leap without some sort of shadow government waiting to get installed...greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up"
It seems atm that the plan IS just to blow everything up, judging by the destruction of the oil storage facilities. Turning Iran into Libya may not be any good for the US, or Europe, or China, but Israel will be happy.
1. The US is in terminal decline - and more important China is on a massive upswing.
Nothing stops this, you can only alter the timing.
Congratulations to Trump for recognising this - probably the only Western Politication to have done this. MAG A(gain) is 10 years old - yet no Dems and few Europeans have realised America hasn't been great for some time.
And a great slogan to release both some truth and some optimism to voters who can taste reality.
2. US has backed out of conflict with both Russia and China - for Good reasons. Hypersonics have changed the nature of warfare making carriers redundant against a peer power. Indeed applying force at long distance is now extemely hard with all those ME bases becoming a US liability.
Biden chose to brazen a weaker US out by Proxy conflict in Ukraine - which was a disaster (even if the media refuse to admit it - Vietnam, Afghanistan - usual stuff). Unfortunaely the great victory in Syrai where US backed terrorists to overturn a popular leader (Assad) could never be celebrated openly because US had always pretended it did not back ISIS.
Trump's choice of a "winnable war" is Iran.
I think when his military advisers said "we can't fight Russia, we can't fight China " and went on to "we can't destroy Yemen and can't fight Iran" Trump just switched off and stopped listening. But I bet they said that.
Desperate acts happen when you are on your way out. It is not that Trump is crazy, just that Dems and media have been in denial about how bad the situation is for USA.
Remember no credible military = no reason why people should trust the dollar.
3. Iranians are fully supportive of their administration in context of war with the Devil USA. Khameni was loved - lived simply - non corrupt. Killing him was a big mistake.
The regime change procedures (small demonstrations reported big, shots fired from rooftops or crowds to provoke shooting by Police) has been repeated in many places. It collapsed when Iran cut off Starlink (with Russian or Chinese help likely) to neutralise the organisation. And was followed by big unreported in west demonstrations pro-Administration which have been repreated this month.
The regime riots in Maidan, Ukraine 2014, did lead to a regime change. In Hong Kong 2019 and Belarus 2020/21 they flopped on the ground but were only ever intended to influence Taiwan voters and Ukrainians (and western opinion). Iran 2026 appears to be solely about persuading westerners that a phase 2, domestic uprising, is feasible. It isn't - it was a Psyop - con job on us.
On the upswing? You gotta be kidding. Yes, some of the worst trends have been blunted and have even reversed a bit. That's great. But President Trump takes two steps back for every one forward, can't be bothered to cement anything permanently into law, and alienates everyone, friend and foe alike. He has set up the conditions for massive blowback in the mid-terms with laser-guided precision, and at that point his agenda is dead. After another two years of impeachment theatre and impotent lashing out, the stage is set for the absolute worst Democrat to be elected, reversing everything he's done and making damn sure that -their- evil agenda is passed into "non-discretionary" law.
And that doesn't account for the eruption of the long-simmering Chinese war, or, more likely, the collapse of our economy, the entire "growth" of which is tottering on titanic deficits and the world-historical "AI" stock-bubble spending binge.
On the other hand, the war so far has been an unbelievable, massive success. It remains to be seen whether the gains are consolidated (or we get out while the getting's good, like in '91), or whether whatever rises from the ashes is worse.
Steve, I was a teenager at the time of the 1979 Iranian revolution and subsequent 444-day hostage crisis. I still remember how weak the U.S. looked under Carter. As you know, what followed was 45 years of Iranian funded islamic terrorism and lots of dead Americans and Westerners. I'm personally enjoying some long overdue payback against the mullahs and ayatollahs. That being said, let's not be dragged into another ground war and attempt at nation building.
I'm a little younger than you but I too remember the frustration, anger, and weakness of 45 years ago.
But "payback"?!? The median age of an Iranian today is 35. I.e., the vast majority of Iranians weren't even born back then.
When we attack people 45 years later who didn't exist at the time of our grievance, it's not "payback". We're starting something new. And our Commander-in-Chief has yet to get his story straight on why.
A teenager in 1979 would be an early Gen X’er, or a late Baby Boomer. If you’re a boomer, then I have a sincere question for you: how does it feel to be part of a generation that has taken so much but given so little? The American empire has completely degraded during your generation’s stewardship, and now this Iran war is your last hurrah. Does it make you proud?
God saved Trump's life so Trump would fall for Israeli apocalyptic nonsense and open up the field for Him to go Deuteronomy on their asses through his most powerful angel: the logical consequences of one's actions.
For the actual war itself, I stand by my initial assessment: Iran's explicit civilian government is completely disjoined from the IRGC remnants running the campaign. There is no easy fix for the US and Trump is very likely to hype up some arbitrary media-facing action, declare victory and let Turkey and Israel sort out the rest.
Most likely outcome is a secular but still adversarial Iran run by a group of faceless generals who never meet in person.
Agreed. We’re already in the first stages of a world war. Proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and now proxy war against China and Russia in Iran. Will only be a matter of time before Taiwan is involved. I don’t see any upside for America in Iran. Dwindling military capacity/stockpiles, deteriorating relationships with other Middle Eastern allies, impending economic crisis. Doesn’t look good.
One thing to factor into any assessment of how things will go in post-war Iran is this (if true, obviously). Remember that Iranian general who was reported to have been killed because he seemed to be just a little too lucky to keep surviving in the recent chaos?
"I saw a tweet this morning that said Esmail Qaani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, had been shot by the IRGC because he was discovered to be an Israeli spy. Astonishing news. But now, an even more stunning revelation: Qaani was indeed a Mossad agent, but he was not shot. He is safe in Israel:"
Our Ukraine is our Ukraine. I was led to believe we’d be out of there by now. I’m sure Russia is delighted to have a little proxy revenge by giving Iran all the help they can.
I'm still right where I was. Iran needed dealt with in 1979 and it has been only been getting worse over the better part of the last half century. The mullahs' treatment of their own people is kinda their problem, but the all-but-declared constant war with Israel is roiling the world and doing nothing good for the West. Israel ain't going away, so that means the conflict is eternal, increasingly radicalizing, and becoming deadlier for both sides. Throw nukes into the equation and you've got a disaster that could throw the entire world into chaos.
As with most wars, and the current Iran War is no different, you're never fully prepared for what is going to happen and what turns and twists and setbacks await the best laid plans. There are hard, deadly lessons to be learned, it is the learning that is the true "reward" of war. The only open question is whether the costs are worth the eventual victory (or defeat) and the extent to which the education hard learned by all sides is employed to good effect in the future. I would say the USA failed this test miserably over its last few forays. I hope it has more able students this time around.
All of the yammering avoids the unavoidable main point: this is a war of choice because Israel wanted it. That's it. All the cope about "47 years" and "muh freedomz!!" and Iran's non-existent nuclear threat are all smoke and mirrors.
Americans are spending billions, American soldiers are dying, all for one reason and one reason only: Israel owns our political class and far too many evangelical boomers have been the victims of theological malpractice.
Younger evangelicals don't seem to have the same mind virus, at least not to the same extent. That isn't to say none do but it is less common, as is religion in general for younger Americans.
Cut off the funding of terrorism, terrorism that has claimed the lives of many Americans over the decades. Lowers the chance that China will invade Taiwan in 2027 because they won't have the ability to have Iran pin down some of our naval forces in the middle east. That said, if you don't think a nuclear armed Iran is a big deal and if you prefer the US stop acting as the world guarantor of peaceful commerce, you likely won't be convinced by those arguments. And that said, you in particular can disagree and Trump can be doing this for America rather than as a puppet of Israel at the same time.
Who’s to say the funding will be cut off? I think that’s an extremely premature conclusion. The ayatollah has now become a martyr, and his son has taken over. They’re just going to stop funding their proxies now? I think you’re really jumping to conclusions. And I think what Trump voters who oppose this war find most disagreeable is that Trump’s election in ‘16 was, in no uncertain terms, a complete rebuke of these kinds of wars. Now it seems that Trump is being led around by the nose by the exact neocon never-Trumpers who opposed him in ‘16.
Bingo. What does AMERICA tangibly gain from this war? The only answer I’ve heard is “security from an Iranian nuke” which is BS, and intangible. Happy to hear other suggestions, but I don’t think anyone has any.
Look at the picture in the post, imagine its a highway in LA.
To replace the Iranian gov w a western friendly one would massively stabilize the region. That being said, how are they going to do that exactly from the air? They are literally counting on them to do it voluntarily.
When Gaza started, I lost a lot of friends when I said the only way this makes sense is if you put a Rwanda style security net of military police at every corner or it won’t work. They still won’t do that. Iran is much bigger, but what is the plan for a new gov structure? The Kurds aren’t an option.
Basic endgame thinking is needed and lacking.
Aka Rwanda after the violence to make sure it wouldn’t happen again. Iran is much bigger than Gaza and even Gaza is a shit show.
Not surprised you lost a lot of friends if you didn't simply shout "Genocide" and call for the UN to intervene. You lost track of reality there
No, I knew they would go in and a strong military occupation would have prevented deaths. Me harassing Jews and being holier than thou like you are would not be an answer, although I hope you enjoy yourself doing so.
Unfortunately, the powers that be are too scared of idiots exactly like you, unfortunately.
My impression is Israel has accomplished what it needed by killing perhaps as many as 180,000 Gazans and keeping the rest living in piles of concrete. Please note I am not critical of them taking out that lunatic asylum.
>would massively stabilize the region
This is the tenth war Israel has started in the last three years.
The issue is not Iran.
Yes, Iran funded the murder of random civilians and kidnappings in October 7th. Hamas is a proxy of theirs.
Israel hate doesn’t seem to be working for the civilized world.
The whole idea behind Israel hate promotion from MSM is that it will win sympathy from you know whom. That the concept doesn't work doesn't stop the MSM machine that does it. So I would classify it as an unquestionable core belief. Is that something psychoanalysts call a taboo?
Israel should learn to make peace with its neighbors instead of ethnically cleansing their client ethnicities.
People should learn to stop killing random Israelis and thinking it is progressive.
Israel cries out in pain as it assassinates civilian governments who are actively negotiating with it and bomb's girl's schools.
Do you really think there would be no consequences?
Iran is suffering the consequences of their backwardsness, but they could be a big ally of Israel and the west if the ayatollah idiots were out of power (chances less than likely).
Ah yes "the jew cries out etc..." I see now. You are a subscriber to StormFront. That explains it.
I try to be respectful on these comments sections but the level of ignorance of recent history this shows is to me, staggering. I actually need to take a break now. You think Israel is the country that doesn't want to make peace with its neighbors? How does that even happen to your brain? It's like being a flat earther. You're trolling, right? Please tell me you're trolling.
Erik, there are too many people who subconsciously (or not sub-) actually love Adolf. One can't argue with them.
yep. I guess a site that allows discussion of forbidden topics should expect all comers. I just don't want them to assume that everyone who agrees with them on. e.g immigration policy or isolationism agrees with everything
The difference is that the Iranians already have a functioning democracy. If Trump can make a deal with the military guys to remove the Mullah's veto and we remove the sanctions, Iran could go back to being a functional country.
Breaking Gaza into 4-5 emirates without access to the beach front and with 2-3 km broad spaces inbetween the emirates would have done the job. One doesn't need military police on every corner - Yehuda and Shomron clearly shows that. But it seems that the Israelis didn't get green light from the US. Or Israelis themselves wanted to keep Gaza as a semi-controllable challenge?
Bro if you are literally on The Board Of Peace ™ hmu let’s get a pint~
I had previously said that I don’t know much about this conflict, and I still don’t , but I have been watching the reactions. Many are saying this will be catastrophic for Trump and that it’s Iraq 2.0, but I beg to differ. This feels different to me. I also get the sense that people are reacting so strongly against this war purely because they got Iraq so wrong, and they simply don’t want to get it wrong like that again. Iraq went badly, but then again, we destroyed Iraq, took the oil, and the contractors got paid for quite some time. Isn’t that what they wanted?
As far as why Trump would risk this, I don’t get it either. Maybe he’s looking for a really big win if it goes as well as he thinks it will. Maybe Netanyahu or deep state actors have something on him. Idk.
We didn't take Iraq's oil. The Europeans did. We didn't even keep an air base out of the deal. We are the most incompetent imperialists in history.
Holding democratic elections in Iraq led inevitably to a Shia government dominated by its large Shia neighbor Iran (just as the effect of deposing the dictator in Egypt was to put the Muslim Brotherhood in power). After 47 years of dictatorship is there a big pro-western opposition movement in the wings waiting to take power? Do we really understand the region any better than a quarter-century ago?
Holding democratic elections in Iraq was one of the most epically stupid moves in history, particularly when anyone with even the most casual knowledge of the country and its demographics knew exactly what was going to result. That's the kind of thing that happens when ideologues (of any stripe) run the show. I expect that of "progressives". I was awfully disappointed that it came out of the likes of my "evil imperialist" buddies like Cheney. Realpolitik gets a bad name, but it's... real.
Very early on, our designing Iraq's new national flag and planning down to the computer terminals their spiffy new stock market was when I got off the train.
It wasn't only the Europeans.
China and Russia(!) got big contracts too.
So there's that.
Lol.
We are not imperialists at this point
We are hired goons for Israel
It is a quarter century of humiliation after humiliation
At the end of which we are despised, poor, and the plan once Iran is sufficiently wrecked (Israel just wants a mess there, not a new regime) is to discard us in a ditch
If you can’t see this… I mean this blog is about Noticing right?
With all due respect, a nuclear armed Iran is a threat to the US, as is control of the straits of Hormuz.
Yeah, it’s “what they wanted”, but it didn’t help the American people at all. So if you are most concerned about lining defense contractors wallets, then this is great. But for those of us who are chiefly concerned about quality of life for the average American, it’s not looking good.
My negative assessment seems vindicated, I think a ground war of some kind is looking to be quite likely
Iran is a large mountain-enclosed country with an intact state and military that will fight, unlike Saddam Hussein’s. A ground war would lead immediately to large US casualties which I doubt Trump will stomach.
Ground war would be absolutely retarded and at this point logistically infeasible, the US hasn't established air superiority and all of our bases surrounding the country are at minimum under threat.
You're entirely correct, but I don't think it's a good betting strategy with the US government to assume something won't happen because of how obviously stupid it'd be to do it.
That's generally sound investment advice too. I should diversify into renewables.
The US hasn't established air superiority??? We are flying anywhere we want and bombing with impunity. In a week of war, not a single casualty over Iran, and the only dead (regrettably) so far are six reservists ostensibly out of the war zone caught the first day in a single lucky hit on a glorified trailer park. I don't know what you think "air superiority" is, but that's everybody else's definition.
I'm guessing the drone/interceptor mismatch as well as the potentially serious Iranian ballistic missile attacks to come once the Patriots and THAADs run out is what challenges the reality of "air superiority" (or, more realistically, supremacy).
I'd guess that we've bombed enough launchers and destroyed enough of their stock of missiles and drones that it won't be much of an issue. Unless they've managed to put together a nuke or two, as I've long suspected.
Perhaps he doesn’t realize that air supremacy is a subcategory of air superiority?
If there is one thing the last five years has taught us, it's that the internet will reenforce whatever POV you come to it with. So if you are a slavering Jew hater who so very much wants Iran to win this, you will see YouTube videos assuring you that the US/Israel have not established air supremacy, let along superiority.
Of course the same thing happens to me so how do I know that we have established air supremecy. I don't obviously, but most of what I see supports that position and very little supports the other.
We’ve been totally vindicated. Anyone here saying otherwise is blinded by years of neocon/neolib propaganda and likely didn’t vote for Trump in ‘16. The whole reason he was elected in the first place was to rebuke these kinds of wars. Now he’s been subsumed by the blob. If people defending this war actually did vote for Trump in ‘16, then they’ve completely abandoned or forgotten about the original meaning of MAGA. MAGA is dead, apparently it just means blind loyalty to Trump now. And Trump has blind loyalty to the former never-Trumpers now advising him.
The Iranian government is something out of the 12th century. They own all the oil and print money whenever they need it; since they're first in line they don't feel the effects and it doesn't matter. Meanwhile a country that should rival the US for living standards is a dreary Muslim dump. But I don't see any scenario where they lose power without US soldiers marching into the place and destroying them. Also Iran has 91 million people. How many of them support their fanatical Shia government--10 million, 20 million, 30 million, 50 million? I have no idea.
Does the Trump administration know something I don't? Does the CIA have an interim leader on ice somewhere waiting to swoop in? Are we in touch with the Iranian Ataturkists? Does anything like that exist? Again, no idea.
I find it difficult to believe that the Trump administration decided to take this leap without some sort of shadow government waiting to get installed. Did everybody just nod in agreement when Trump and whoever said we'll just blow stuff up for a zillion dollars a day and see what happens? I would find it very out of character for our Developer-in-Chief, who has so far always kept an ace as his hole card. But maybe i'm overestimating him this time.
Still too soon to tell, Steve. But I will be greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up and see what happens. It's not like we don't have things to worry about and spend our global reserve currency on here.
"The Iranian government is something out of the 12th century. They own all the oil and print money whenever they need it; since they're first in line they don't feel the effects and it doesn't matter."
Well who does that remind me off. The guys that own all the oil and wealth are the government.
"But I will be greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up and see what happens."
You mean like Syria, Libya, Ukraine and everything else US has done for 20 years?
Trump is a departure from previous administrations and has plenty of enemies and ex-employees and out of work contractors inside the Beltway. He had nothing to do with Libya or Ukraine.
Syria, we had Ahmed al-Sharaa waiting to roll out when even Assad's own clan got tired of him.
No he really isn't.
The difference is in Obama's time you could speak nice play dirty and no one dare speak out. Now you have to speak as dirty as you can to maintain the last bit of threat, but acts are much milder (hence all the bragging about kidnapping a couple of Venezuelans). Iran seems to be a mistake - as will be revealed i expect soon. But it isn't Taiwan or Ukraine (which was wholly a Biden aggression).
as-Sharaa/Joolani had been one of our terrorists for 20 years - the whole terror thing in Syria was US co-ordinated with strong UK, Israel Saudi and Turkish support. It was all planned back in 2006 or earlier (GenWesley Clarke explained it all)
Frankly anyone who understands anything about ME knows how deep US has been into terror groups all this time. Hand held by Israel.
Sixty years now.
Dude the US military just reenacted a story from the Old Testament on the day of the holiday celebrating it on behalf of an ethnic theocracy
Our house isn't even glass on this, it is wet cardboard
Numerologically based ancient blood vengeance is as American as ….
Nope
It is just deeply profoundly sickeningly unAmerican
Iranian Ataturkists. Sigh. We stood by as the real Ataturkists, the only positive force in the whole Muslim world, were purged by Erdoğan, and NATO member Turkey became an enemy. Sigh.
Sometimes I look back on when the evil CIA ran the world and get a little misty.
> "How many of them support their fanatical Shia government ... ?"
There are about 10 million directly on the government's payroll, at least a million of whom are also armed (military, police, etc.).
So that leaves ~80 million unaccounted for. Well, not completely unaccounted for. Contra the propaganda, Iran does have elections, and the elections are probably no more corrupt than certain US states. So the Iranian government probably enjoys at least as much support as the average western European government currently (admittedly a low bar, but you get the idea).
But crucially, the armed Iranians almost all seem to be on the government's side, and the worse things get, the more their support matters.
Maaaybe, the anti-Persian forces will have some success hiving off less important provinces using non-Persian militias, e.g., Kurds, Azeris, etc., but none of those militias want to face a million enemy without massive fire support. And the militias' neighbors (e.g., Iraq, Turkey, etc.) don't necessarily want those militias to succeed lest they set the wrong example for their own restive minorities, so the militias can't count on too much local logistical cooperation.
tl;dr: Without mass defections of the Iranian security state, it's hard to see any path to victory without a nation-breaking commitment of ground forces. Short of that, the only visible exit strategy is just to blow up a bunch of stuff, declare "victory", and go home. I.e, the same thing the US did in the Twelve-Day War.
Well, you can foresee that, I can foresee that, but the people we handed all the status and nukes to didn't foresee that? Was it even discussed?
This is why I still entertain libertarianism. These people are overdue for being dragged from behind their desks while their offices are burned to the ground.
I'm delighted to be proved wrong, but I really don't see a good way forward from here. How much of a country do you need to overthrow an established government? I'd say you need at least a committed third, and a third of those need to be willing to trade small arms fire with professional soldiers.
It usually works better if a big tranche of the soldiery go over to the other side.
Haven't heard any sign of that in Iran though.
From what I'm reading it seems there was no plan, no end game other than we just hoped several million Iranians would overthrow their well-armed, religiously motivated government. And of course this is all funny money; USG expenditures departed from actual revenues long ago. Remind me again why I'm still paying taxes?
Also is dragging officials from office and burning it to the ground really "Libertarianism"? That sounds more fun than I was led to believe.
The Iranians have a democracy with one catch--The mullahs get to decide whether or not you can run in the first place. This means there is a possibility (contrast with literally every other country in the Middle East save one) for a functioning democracy in Iran. it's possible the militaries (the regular and special palace guard types) might get tired of all this and agree to some kind of deal with Trump. My impression is that most of the economic misery in the country is due to our sanctions on them. So there is a path where the rump of the council of Mullah's quietly disbands at half-time while some military coalition steps in to secure the country while the existing bureaucracy runs things.
If we don't demand the analog of debathificion it might work and they limp along until the next election.
> "The mullahs get to decide whether or not you can run in the first place."
In other words, exactly like Europe where the EU or courts or civil servants decide whether your party or candidate is allowed to run, and if they run whether they are allowed to win or whether a cordon sanitaire must separate them from actual office: the same role the US media, judiciary, and civil service would like to appoint itself. The only difference is that in Iran the 'Guardians' are Shia theocrats while in the West the 'guardians' are Woke theocrats.
> "contrast with literally every other country in the Middle East save one"
Iraq has elections. Turkey has elections. Lebanon has elections. Kuwait has elections. Algeria, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia have held elections in recent years. Even the Jordanian monarchy has an elected parliament. You can say those elections aren't properly representative, but that's the same complaint Americans and Europeans make about their elections.
You are correct my elections talking point is out of date.
Does the EU really that? You'd think that would be a bigger deal.
You'd think...
It's Mother-may-I government over there.
Yes, I'm unconvinced by the constant framing of the Islamic Republic as the Most Backward Government on Earth. Really, is it worse than a typical sub-Saharan dictatorship? Worse than the ANC in South Africa? Worse than North Korea or Turkmenistan or the Junta in Burma? Worse than the Wahabbists in Saudi or the sectarians in Lebanon? Worse than Cuba or Venezuela?!
"I find it difficult to believe that the Trump administration decided to take this leap without some sort of shadow government waiting to get installed...greatly disappointed if it turns out the plan was let's just blow everything up"
It seems atm that the plan IS just to blow everything up, judging by the destruction of the oil storage facilities. Turning Iran into Libya may not be any good for the US, or Europe, or China, but Israel will be happy.
1. The US is in terminal decline - and more important China is on a massive upswing.
Nothing stops this, you can only alter the timing.
Congratulations to Trump for recognising this - probably the only Western Politication to have done this. MAG A(gain) is 10 years old - yet no Dems and few Europeans have realised America hasn't been great for some time.
And a great slogan to release both some truth and some optimism to voters who can taste reality.
2. US has backed out of conflict with both Russia and China - for Good reasons. Hypersonics have changed the nature of warfare making carriers redundant against a peer power. Indeed applying force at long distance is now extemely hard with all those ME bases becoming a US liability.
Biden chose to brazen a weaker US out by Proxy conflict in Ukraine - which was a disaster (even if the media refuse to admit it - Vietnam, Afghanistan - usual stuff). Unfortunaely the great victory in Syrai where US backed terrorists to overturn a popular leader (Assad) could never be celebrated openly because US had always pretended it did not back ISIS.
Trump's choice of a "winnable war" is Iran.
I think when his military advisers said "we can't fight Russia, we can't fight China " and went on to "we can't destroy Yemen and can't fight Iran" Trump just switched off and stopped listening. But I bet they said that.
Desperate acts happen when you are on your way out. It is not that Trump is crazy, just that Dems and media have been in denial about how bad the situation is for USA.
Remember no credible military = no reason why people should trust the dollar.
3. Iranians are fully supportive of their administration in context of war with the Devil USA. Khameni was loved - lived simply - non corrupt. Killing him was a big mistake.
The regime change procedures (small demonstrations reported big, shots fired from rooftops or crowds to provoke shooting by Police) has been repeated in many places. It collapsed when Iran cut off Starlink (with Russian or Chinese help likely) to neutralise the organisation. And was followed by big unreported in west demonstrations pro-Administration which have been repreated this month.
The regime riots in Maidan, Ukraine 2014, did lead to a regime change. In Hong Kong 2019 and Belarus 2020/21 they flopped on the ground but were only ever intended to influence Taiwan voters and Ukrainians (and western opinion). Iran 2026 appears to be solely about persuading westerners that a phase 2, domestic uprising, is feasible. It isn't - it was a Psyop - con job on us.
On the upswing? You gotta be kidding. Yes, some of the worst trends have been blunted and have even reversed a bit. That's great. But President Trump takes two steps back for every one forward, can't be bothered to cement anything permanently into law, and alienates everyone, friend and foe alike. He has set up the conditions for massive blowback in the mid-terms with laser-guided precision, and at that point his agenda is dead. After another two years of impeachment theatre and impotent lashing out, the stage is set for the absolute worst Democrat to be elected, reversing everything he's done and making damn sure that -their- evil agenda is passed into "non-discretionary" law.
And that doesn't account for the eruption of the long-simmering Chinese war, or, more likely, the collapse of our economy, the entire "growth" of which is tottering on titanic deficits and the world-historical "AI" stock-bubble spending binge.
On the other hand, the war so far has been an unbelievable, massive success. It remains to be seen whether the gains are consolidated (or we get out while the getting's good, like in '91), or whether whatever rises from the ashes is worse.
Events, my dear boy, events.
Steve, I was a teenager at the time of the 1979 Iranian revolution and subsequent 444-day hostage crisis. I still remember how weak the U.S. looked under Carter. As you know, what followed was 45 years of Iranian funded islamic terrorism and lots of dead Americans and Westerners. I'm personally enjoying some long overdue payback against the mullahs and ayatollahs. That being said, let's not be dragged into another ground war and attempt at nation building.
I'm a little younger than you but I too remember the frustration, anger, and weakness of 45 years ago.
But "payback"?!? The median age of an Iranian today is 35. I.e., the vast majority of Iranians weren't even born back then.
When we attack people 45 years later who didn't exist at the time of our grievance, it's not "payback". We're starting something new. And our Commander-in-Chief has yet to get his story straight on why.
Stop your whining. Tell someone who cares.
Tough ole Gen X’er. Cringe
I'm not a gen x'er. Fuck you.
A teenager in 1979 would be an early Gen X’er, or a late Baby Boomer. If you’re a boomer, then I have a sincere question for you: how does it feel to be part of a generation that has taken so much but given so little? The American empire has completely degraded during your generation’s stewardship, and now this Iran war is your last hurrah. Does it make you proud?
"Yawn." You're a poor wittle victm...waaaahhhh...pathetic. Grow a pair.
You must have been tickled pink about the dead kids at the school then
Jesus wept
Calm down, woman.
God saved Trump's life so Trump would fall for Israeli apocalyptic nonsense and open up the field for Him to go Deuteronomy on their asses through his most powerful angel: the logical consequences of one's actions.
For the actual war itself, I stand by my initial assessment: Iran's explicit civilian government is completely disjoined from the IRGC remnants running the campaign. There is no easy fix for the US and Trump is very likely to hype up some arbitrary media-facing action, declare victory and let Turkey and Israel sort out the rest.
Most likely outcome is a secular but still adversarial Iran run by a group of faceless generals who never meet in person.
US out of Iran.
We shouldn't be Israel's errand boy. American boys should not die for Israel.
Agreed. We’re already in the first stages of a world war. Proxy war against Russia in Ukraine and now proxy war against China and Russia in Iran. Will only be a matter of time before Taiwan is involved. I don’t see any upside for America in Iran. Dwindling military capacity/stockpiles, deteriorating relationships with other Middle Eastern allies, impending economic crisis. Doesn’t look good.
One thing to factor into any assessment of how things will go in post-war Iran is this (if true, obviously). Remember that Iranian general who was reported to have been killed because he seemed to be just a little too lucky to keep surviving in the recent chaos?
"I saw a tweet this morning that said Esmail Qaani, the head of Iran’s Quds Force, had been shot by the IRGC because he was discovered to be an Israeli spy. Astonishing news. But now, an even more stunning revelation: Qaani was indeed a Mossad agent, but he was not shot. He is safe in Israel:"
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/03/a-stunning-revelation.php
They've since edited that...whoever "they" are. It's a hall of mirrors I tell ya:
"UPDATE: Too stunning to be true, apparently. It now looks like this was a false rumor that existed only on Twitter. Sorry."
You’re bored with winning? Not me.
Please name one tangible thing America gains from this war. “Safety” does not qualify
https://substack.com/@a1ssa/note/c-223980614?r=70wljy&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
I’m hoping this isn’t our Ukraine
Our Ukraine is our Ukraine. I was led to believe we’d be out of there by now. I’m sure Russia is delighted to have a little proxy revenge by giving Iran all the help they can.
The US is no longer funding Ukraine. All they get is intelligence.
I don’t believe a word of that. The Hungarians just caught two armored trucks with 90 million of cash and gold heading for Ukraine.
Even if it’s true, we’ve been supplying them with munitions and targeting info for four years.
China and Russia are getting plenty of intelligence out of this boondoggle.
Source for that story?
What boondoggle are you referring to?
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-cash-shipment-detained-hungary-745c17643b9a0965024d7a8410c5fc17
There are many sources reporting on the seizure.
I’m referring to the boondoggle in Iran. I’m not a fan.
The boondoggle is Hungary seizing the money.
I'm still right where I was. Iran needed dealt with in 1979 and it has been only been getting worse over the better part of the last half century. The mullahs' treatment of their own people is kinda their problem, but the all-but-declared constant war with Israel is roiling the world and doing nothing good for the West. Israel ain't going away, so that means the conflict is eternal, increasingly radicalizing, and becoming deadlier for both sides. Throw nukes into the equation and you've got a disaster that could throw the entire world into chaos.
As with most wars, and the current Iran War is no different, you're never fully prepared for what is going to happen and what turns and twists and setbacks await the best laid plans. There are hard, deadly lessons to be learned, it is the learning that is the true "reward" of war. The only open question is whether the costs are worth the eventual victory (or defeat) and the extent to which the education hard learned by all sides is employed to good effect in the future. I would say the USA failed this test miserably over its last few forays. I hope it has more able students this time around.
All of the yammering avoids the unavoidable main point: this is a war of choice because Israel wanted it. That's it. All the cope about "47 years" and "muh freedomz!!" and Iran's non-existent nuclear threat are all smoke and mirrors.
Americans are spending billions, American soldiers are dying, all for one reason and one reason only: Israel owns our political class and far too many evangelical boomers have been the victims of theological malpractice.
Why boomers? Wouldn’t young evangelicals think the same way as older ones?
Younger evangelicals don't seem to have the same mind virus, at least not to the same extent. That isn't to say none do but it is less common, as is religion in general for younger Americans.
Do you have any actual evidence? Polls, that type of thing. I’m genuinely curious.
Mostly anecdotal.
I’ve heard some anecdotal stuff along those lines too.
There may be more solid info at some point.
Art, it looks like you've only got a hammer, so everything looks like a nail to you.
Thanks for that insightful reply
Your sarcasm is evidence that you agree with him. Otherwise you might provide a convincing contradiction.
I am not obligated to provide a serious reply to an unserious comment but thanks for your similarly insightful reply.
I said nothing about an obligation but I do appreciate you losing the argument a second time to me.
Other than “safety from a nuclear Iran”, can you name me one tangible thing that America gains from this war? Sincere question
Cut off the funding of terrorism, terrorism that has claimed the lives of many Americans over the decades. Lowers the chance that China will invade Taiwan in 2027 because they won't have the ability to have Iran pin down some of our naval forces in the middle east. That said, if you don't think a nuclear armed Iran is a big deal and if you prefer the US stop acting as the world guarantor of peaceful commerce, you likely won't be convinced by those arguments. And that said, you in particular can disagree and Trump can be doing this for America rather than as a puppet of Israel at the same time.
Who’s to say the funding will be cut off? I think that’s an extremely premature conclusion. The ayatollah has now become a martyr, and his son has taken over. They’re just going to stop funding their proxies now? I think you’re really jumping to conclusions. And I think what Trump voters who oppose this war find most disagreeable is that Trump’s election in ‘16 was, in no uncertain terms, a complete rebuke of these kinds of wars. Now it seems that Trump is being led around by the nose by the exact neocon never-Trumpers who opposed him in ‘16.
Bingo. What does AMERICA tangibly gain from this war? The only answer I’ve heard is “security from an Iranian nuke” which is BS, and intangible. Happy to hear other suggestions, but I don’t think anyone has any.