Prima Facie Leadership

Leadership potential can sometimes be recognized at a glance.

The 1912 West Point football team featured two future 5-star generals, Dwight Eisenhower (3.5 from left) and Omar Bradley (far right)

From the Journal of Experimental Criminology:

If the face fits: predicting future promotions from police cadets’ facial traits

Published: 04 February 2023

Ian T. Adams, Scott M. Mourtgos, Christopher A. Simon & Nicholas P. Lovrich

Objective

To evaluate the relationship between police cadets’ facial traits and their subsequent promotional success.

Methods

Using archival police academy photographs, we use a two-phase experiment to evaluate the impact of facial traits on future promotional success. First, respondents (n = 507) view randomly selected photographs of cadets (observations = 15,669) and evaluate them for facial traits and perceived leadership ability. Second, respondents are presented with random dyads of differentially promoted recruits, and choose one based on the highest perceived leadership ability. We compare those leadership evaluations to the subsequent promotional success of the cadets featured in the photographs (observations = 5739). We employ Bayesian multilevel modeling throughout both phases.

Results

Facial traits are the primary driver of subject perceptions of leadership ability, and those perceptions successfully predict promotional success later in the cadets’ careers. When selecting for leadership potential based on police cadet photographs, respondents predict correct promotional choices at levels well above chance as measured by an AUC score of .70. Further, respondents’ evaluations successfully discriminate both between no promotion and lieutenant promotion, and sergeant versus lieutenant promotions.

Conclusions

Promoting the most capable police officers is a critical feature of public service. Our findings cast a degree of doubt on the purportedly meritocratic foundations of police promotion and selection. Extra-legal information, such as facial features, predicts later promotional success.

I dunno, seems like promoting cops whom strangers look at and say, “Now that looks like a leader” could work out fairly well.

Back around the turn of the century, there was a similar study of Army cadet's photos in old West Point yearbooks. Sure enough, strong-jawed cadets who looked like natural leaders of men were more likely to wind up as generals decades later.

Amusingly at the scientific conference in Europe where I heard about this paper, we had an example of this effect in action. Most days, after hearing about studies in the morning, we'd get on a bus in the afternoon and visit a tourist destination. But our trips always involved a lot of wasted time due to the academics indecisively milling about because none of us intellectuals had any leadership skills.

Finally, one of the coeds who was helping out at the conference brought her handsome, strong-jawed boyfriend along on an outing. This 20-year-old immediately took charge of the middle-aged academics like a border collie directing a sheep herd, and we all gratefully fell into line behind him. The whole day went much more smoothly than the previous ones because we all recognized a natural leader and followed his direction.