The Killing Season

The Fourth of July ranks with New Year’s Eve among the most homicidal of holidays. How come?

From the Chicago Tribune news section:

Why mass shootings and violence increase in the summer

By JOHN SEEWER

PUBLISHED: July 3, 2024 at 8:49 a.m.

Violence and mass shootings often surge in the summer months, especially around the Fourth of July, historically one of the deadliest days of the year.

… The Gun Violence Archive, which tracks mass shootings involving four or more people regardless of whether they died, shows June, July, and August have had the highest total number of mass shootings over the past decade. The lowest totals were from December through March.

Independence Day topped the list with 58 mass shootings over the last 10 years — closely followed by July 5, according to the archive.

“It’s the gathering, the free time, the drinking,” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist and professor at Northeastern University, who oversees a mass killings database maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with the university.

Keep in mind the lesson of Sailer’s Law of Mass Shootings: there are two quite different types of mass shootings with four or more wounded or killed: the rarer but more horrific Columbine-style mass shootings with more killed than wounded, which tend to take place Monday through Friday between 9 and 5 or on Sunday mornings at church vs. another Saturday night in front of the rap concert shootings with more wounded than dead.

The CDC’s WONDER database makes available to the public the causes of all deaths. Here are deaths by homicide in the half-dozen years from 2018 through 2023 for July compared to January (both months have 31 days so they make good apples to apples comparisons):

Over the last half dozen years, blacks died 23% more by homicide in July than in January, American Indians died 18% more by homicide, and Hispanics 17% more. In contrast, whites died only 2% more and Asians died 15% less.

Note that January includes a large fraction of New Year’s Eve killings. For example, my mother was selected for jury duty in the trial of Richard Pryor for nonhomicidally shooting his wife’s car engine on the morning of January 1, 1978 after what I presume was a pretty memorable New Year’s Eve party. But the trial was postponed and my mom was dismissed from jury duty.

It could be that the surplus of Asian deaths by homicide in January over July is due to Chinese New Year, or it could just be due to a small sample size. So, I checked out Asian deaths by homicide for the 22 years from 1999-2020. It turned out that over that fairly long span, 696 Asians died by homicide in January and 694 in July.

Why do so many more blacks, Native Americans, and Hispanics die by homicide (usually at the hands of co-ethnics) in summer than in winter? I’m guessing that hot weather leads to hot tempers.

But perhaps a more obscure cause is that it’s harder to keep out unwanted party guests, a notorious cause of black-on-black shootings, at outdoor summer parties than at indoor winter parties.

For example, I recall the sad tale of a black college fraternity house that decided, as an act of neighborliness, to host an outdoor block party for its neighbors at the end of the spring semester. A local malcontent got in to the party, started an argument, pulled out a gun, and murdered a frat boy.

Personally, I’m against frat boys being murdered by wastrels, although I realize that sounds deplorable.

My guess is that if the frat had held their party indoors in January, they would never have let this bad news guy into their frat house. Buildings only have a handful of entrances so they are simpler to control who gets in.

But it’s harder to police the perimeter of an outdoor summer party.