The Power of Prediction Markets

Polymarket failed to forecast the Syrian dictator's downfall.

Well, I sure didn’t see the events in Syria coming.

AMMAN/BEIRUT/CAIRO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Syrian rebels said on Sunday that they have ended Bashar al-Assad's 24-year authoritarian rule, in their first announcement on state television following a lightning offensive that took the world by surprise.

Syria's army command notified officers on Sunday that Assad's regime had ended, a Syrian officer who was informed of the move told Reuters.

But the Syrian army later said it was continuing operations against "terrorist groups" in the key cities of Hama and Homs and in Deraa countryside.

Assad, who had crushed all forms of dissent, flew out of Damascus for an unknown destination earlier on Sunday, two senior army officers told Reuters, as rebels said they had entered the capital with no sign of army deployments.

But then, apparently, almost nobody else did either, according to the Polymarket betting site.

It appears now that 70% Sunni Syria will be ruled by an apparently competent Sunni rebel fighter in his early 40s who calls himself Abu Mohammad al-Julani, in reference to his father’s origin in the Golan Heights, which Israel conquered in 1967 and later annexed.

Will al-Julani (a.k.a., al-Shar’a) prove to be the previously mythical “moderate Syrian rebel?”

He’s been talking a conciliatory line toward most of Syria’s minorities in recent years. And the way Assad’s supporters folded with barely a fight suggests that some non-Sunnis in Syria might have hopes he really means it.

To go off on a tangent, I’m struck by the emergence of a new leader in the Middle East, where so many power players have been around forever. Assad is 59 and was in power for 24 years. Netanyahu is 75, Erdogan 70, and Sisi 70. Putin is 72, Biden is 81 and Trump is 78. MBS in Saudi Arabia is only 39, but has already been in charge for 7 years. Anybody have any good theories why in this century we get the same guys for decades?

By the way, is Israel going to find itself more secure with Iranian Shi’ite influence in the Levant badly damaged?

I’m not so certain.

In some ways, Persian-speaking Shi’ite Iran was a pretty good enemy for Israel to have: far away and culturally distinct from most of the non-Jewish locals in the Levant, who tend to be Arab-speaking Sunnis.

Will Israel be better off if its neighbor Syria is no longer ruled by a weird, hated minority (Assad’s Alawites were once described as “Shi’ite but not Muslim”), but now is led by an effectual member of the Sunni majority who, so far, seem less obsessed than most of his type with vengeance on the local minorities? But al-Julani also has a personal reason to hate Israel, being from a Golan Heights family.

Perhaps the new guy will look to unify Syrians at home by focusing more on confronting Israel next door? I’m reminded of publisher Lord Copper’s philosophy in Evelyn Waugh’s Scoop: “'The Beast stands for strong mutually antagonistic governments everywhere.”

Somewhat similarly, Israel plotted ever since 2006 to get vengeance on Lebanese Shi’ite Hezbollah for fighting a fairly honorable war against Israel in 2006, evidently taking their eye off vicious Sunni Hamas in Gaza. I presume Israel’s ferocious attack on Hezbollah’s leadership’s beepers has in some manner weakened Iran’s fellow allies in Syria.

Will that turn out to be good for Israel in the long run?

Well, don’t ask me. I don’t know.

But does anybody else?