Steve Sailer

Steve Sailer

What If Sailer Is Right?

What if The Science proves tomorrow that the racial gap in average IQ is partly genetic? Would that be the end of the world?

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Steve Sailer
Apr 24, 2026
∙ Paid

Here’s a hypothetical question:

The following is widely believed to be a doomsday scenario, a disaster of Biblical proportion.

But would it be?

Let’s say that tomorrow, one of the prestigious scientific journals such as Nature or Science, publishes a huge new study using breakthrough techniques and/or a superb new source of data that firmly shows that hereditary genetics accounts for half of the white-black gap in average IQ.

This causes a large controversy with numerous scientists suggesting ways to retest this question. Over the next decade, however, the next half-dozen major studies all replicate this finding that nature, as well as nurture, plays a substantial role in the white-black average IQ gap.

After ten years, it’s widely admitted in the mainstream media and academia that there is an average IQ gap and that genetics is one cause of it. For example, if in 2036 you ask a big commercial AI if it’s plausible that genetics might not affect racial differences in average IQ, it responds:

“While the nurture-only explanation of racial differences in average IQ was once widely believed, even by some scientists, the huge scientific advances of 2026-2035 appear to have ruled out the plausibility of only nurture causing the persistent IQ gaps seen between the races. The 100% nurture belief is now largely seen by contemporary science as an extremist delusion of the recent past.”

Would that really bring about the apocalypse?

Paywall here.

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