By Michael H. Keller, Eli Murray, Danielle Ivory and Irineo Cabreros, June 21, 2026
For decades, American roads were steadily getting safer for pedestrians. But around 2009, the trend reversed. Since then, the number of pedestrians killed each year has risen by about 75 percent.
The surge in pedestrian deaths has baffled researchers. Most other wealthy countries haven’t seen similar increases, suggesting that possible culprits like smartphones don’t tell the whole story.
Other likely causes of deadly crashes, such as drunken and distracted driving, have attracted immense attention from the public and policymakers. But the trend toward ever-larger vehicles has received much less scrutiny, even after federal researchers in 2022 cautioned regulators that it was endangering pedestrians.
After analyzing federal and industry records, including never-before-examined data on vehicle dimensions, we found that the rise of large pickups and S.U.V.s is an important factor.
Our estimate is that about 200 to 400 pedestrians a year would not have died if vehicles had remained approximately the same size over the past quarter-century. That represents about 10 percent of the recent increase in pedestrian deaths.
OK, sound plausible.
But ten percent of the recent increase in pedestrian deaths would leave ninety percent unaccounted for.
Shouldn’t we be focusing on the other 90%?
There are two reasons bigger vehicles are deadlier: They have taller hoods. And they tend to have larger blind zones.
That sounds not implausible.
Still …
Unfortunately, the New York Times appears to have completely forgotten about its own 2023 article looking into the rise in pedestrian deaths:
