Is the Sailer Strategy Out of Date?

25 years ago, I proposed that rather than the GOP focusing on Hispanics as Karl Rove insisted, it should pursue blue collar whites in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

What’s going to happen in the 2026 and 2028 elections?

Me, about 9 years ago

Personally, I don’t know.

Trump was fairly indecisive during his first term. And then he was out of power during Biden’s senile term, so he could be fantasized as the Prince Across the Water who would do whatever you would imagine he’d do.

But now during his second term he’s being strikingly decisive. So, the GOP’s fate is likely dependent upon how well Trump’s initiatives work out in the short run.

For example, Trump did fairly well among Hispanics in 2024, especially among Latino men who dreamed that Trump would deport their wife’s nephew, that worthless gangbanger who has been sleeping on their couch since Biden let him in in 2021.

But not deport their wife.

The second Trump Administration is audacious, but lacking in fineesse.

So, who knows what’s next?

From The American Conservative:

The Delayed Democratic Majority

America is headed for one-party progressive rule.

Andrew Day

Apr 18, 2025

Demographics are destiny.

That idea lay at the heart of the 2002 book The Emerging Democratic Majority, which argued that racial-demographic transformation, among other factors, was producing a political realignment that favored America’s Blue Team. The authors—John Judis and Ruy Teixeira—were pleased with their findings. All good liberals were.

The book freaked out Republicans and gave Democrats confidence that irreversible victory was possible, if not inevitable. As whites became a minority, many liberals believed, so too would Republican voters.

But then Donald Trump happened. His surprise defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 suggested that a “white lash” was wrecking Democrats’ hopes for one-party rule. Eight years later, Trump’s decisive reelection victory—winning all battleground states and gaining support from all racial minority groups—seemed to discredit the Judis-Teixeira theory more fundamentally. Smart Democrats pored over polling crosstabs and concluded they’d actually have to persuade voters if they wanted to win elections. Republicans, reassured that the browning of America didn’t mean the waning of their power, breathed sighs of relief.

So wide is the consensus that The Emerging Democratic Majority was wrong that even its authors have recanted. …

This consensus view is mistaken. Absent significant changes to fertility rates and immigration patterns—changes that do not appear to be forthcoming—the Democrats are on track to achieve electoral dominance in the years ahead. The “emerging Democratic majority” hasn’t been disproven, but deferred. …

In a message to me, Steve Sailer, the legendary socio-political commentator, …

Paywall here.