Is the Sailer Strategy Out of Date?
25 years ago, I proposed that rather than the GOP focusing on Hispanics as Karl Rove insisted, it should pursue blue collar whites in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
What’s going to happen in the 2026 and 2028 elections?
Personally, I don’t know.
Trump was fairly indecisive during his first term. And then he was out of power during Biden’s senile term, so he could be fantasized as the Prince Across the Water who would do whatever you would imagine he’d do.
But now during his second term he’s being strikingly decisive. So, the GOP’s fate is likely dependent upon how well Trump’s initiatives work out in the short run.
For example, Trump did fairly well among Hispanics in 2024, especially among Latino men who dreamed that Trump would deport their wife’s nephew, that worthless gangbanger who has been sleeping on their couch since Biden let him in in 2021.
But not deport their wife.
The second Trump Administration is audacious, but lacking in fineesse.
So, who knows what’s next?
From The American Conservative:
The Delayed Democratic Majority
America is headed for one-party progressive rule.
Andrew Day
Apr 18, 2025
Demographics are destiny.
That idea lay at the heart of the 2002 book The Emerging Democratic Majority, which argued that racial-demographic transformation, among other factors, was producing a political realignment that favored America’s Blue Team. The authors—John Judis and Ruy Teixeira—were pleased with their findings. All good liberals were.
The book freaked out Republicans and gave Democrats confidence that irreversible victory was possible, if not inevitable. As whites became a minority, many liberals believed, so too would Republican voters.
But then Donald Trump happened. His surprise defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 suggested that a “white lash” was wrecking Democrats’ hopes for one-party rule. Eight years later, Trump’s decisive reelection victory—winning all battleground states and gaining support from all racial minority groups—seemed to discredit the Judis-Teixeira theory more fundamentally. Smart Democrats pored over polling crosstabs and concluded they’d actually have to persuade voters if they wanted to win elections. Republicans, reassured that the browning of America didn’t mean the waning of their power, breathed sighs of relief.
So wide is the consensus that The Emerging Democratic Majority was wrong that even its authors have recanted. …
This consensus view is mistaken. Absent significant changes to fertility rates and immigration patterns—changes that do not appear to be forthcoming—the Democrats are on track to achieve electoral dominance in the years ahead. The “emerging Democratic majority” hasn’t been disproven, but deferred. …
In a message to me, Steve Sailer, the legendary socio-political commentator, …
Paywall here.
compared Republicans’ glass-half-full view of Hispanics to a business joke: “Our prices are so low we lose money on each item we sell, but we make up for it on volume.” While Sailer acknowledged the possibility that a majority of Hispanic voters will back the GOP in future elections, he summed up the current situation thus: “If you used to lose 67–33 among some rapidly growing immigrant group and now you lose only 57–43, well, you’ve impressively blunted the bleeding, as it were, but the Great Replacement is still not working in your favor.”
But who knows what will happen next?
Anyway, it’s a good article, so read it there.
Living in N. Texas, I have many legal immigrant friends and employees, some long time and some very recent. They have, after some time, all gone through the process and have some sort of government permission to be here from citizenship to work permits. None of them are anxious to support the illegal entry into the country, not only by Hispanics but the large numbers of unknown people illegally coming from China, the middle east, Africa and the Carribean. The other complaint I have seen from my Hispanic buddies is their disbelief in the trans movement, especially men in women's sports. If we just treat the Democrats as the loons they are and forget pandering to one group or another, the sane members of that group will vote Republican, or at least, not Democrat.
Writers for the modern AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE are a youngish, socially liberal crowd at odds with Buchanan conservatism. I found Mr. Day tedious and his inevitability claims are a bit silly. Events happen and politics can turn on its head at any time. For instance, after the 1928 landslide of Herbert Hoover, it looked as if the Republican Party would dominate American politics well into the future. They had won landslides in 1920 and 1924 as well. But Wall Street collapsed in the Fall of 1929 and a Great Depression ensued. The Democratic Party would dominate American politics for fifty years.
Sailer's law is still correct. Republicans should push the white vote but also realize that most Hispanics consider themselves white. Legal and illegal immigration should be reduced drastically.
As for 2025's elections, I see a crushing defeat for Republicans in Virginia. The Democratic candidate for Governor is an attractive white woman named Abigail Spanberger. She's married, took her husband's surname and is the mother of three. The Republican candidate for Governor is a black woman with a hyphenated last name. The Republican candidate for Lt.-Governor is a homosexual. If Republicans keep nominating sure losers, they're going to be beaten, simple as that.